We're seven weeks into the WNBA season, and the race for the top eight playoff spots continues to get tighter. Only 2.5 games separate the third-place Connecticut Sun and a trio of teams—the Lynx, Dream, and Sparks—all of which are tied for ninth place.
One team that's managed to pull itself out from the bottom of the standings is the Chicago Sky. Chicago has won their last five games to get back to .500 after a 2-7 start. It is now tied for the longest winning streak in the league with Seattle and Las Vegas, who have won five straight.
Both Chicago and Seattle will be in action on Tuesday as they hope to extend their winning streak to six games. We'll preview each game along with Connecticut's quest to snap a three-game losing streak of its own.
Projected WNBA Odds
| Matchup | Time | Proj. Spread | Proj. Total |
| Wings at Sun | 7 p.m. ET | Sun -3.64 | 161 |
| Sky at Liberty | 7 p.m. ET | Sky -7.82 | 164.62 |
| Mystics at Storm | 10 p.m. ET | Storm -13.25 | 162.33 |
Wings at Sun Odds
| Wings Odds | +1 |
| Sun Odds | -1 |
| Over/Under | 156 |
| Time | 7 p.m. ET |
| Odds as of Tuesday and via BetMGM. | |
Injuries & News
There are no players listed on the Dallas injury report.
Jonquel Jones (21.6 PPG) remains out for Connecticut as she's competing in the 2021 European Women Basketball Championship. Jones is a native of the Bahamas but has held Bosnian citizenship since May 2019. In addition, Alyssa Thomas is expected to miss the entire season after tearing her Achilles while playing overseas in January.
Downgrade Connecticut With Jones Still Absent
It shouldn't be a surprise that Connecticut has lost its last three games since Jones departed for international duty. She's a big reason why the Sun got off to an 8-2 start. Jones led the team in scoring in eight of the 10 games she played in this season. Furthermore, her 31.8 player efficiency rating (PER) is almost four points higher than anyone else in the league.
I estimate that the former sixth overall pick is worth as much as 3.5 points to the spread, but that might even be selling her short when you add in that she also leads the league with 10.4 rebounds per game.
The first line I saw for Tuesday's game listed Connecticut as a 4.5-point favorite over Dallas. That was quickly bet down to -1. Given that my model projected Connecticut as a 3.64-point favorite, I tend to agree with the move.
The Wings have won four of their last six games, with one of those victories being against the Storm on the road. In fact, Dallas has a -2 point differential in their two games this season against Seattle. Keep in mind that nine of Seattle's 12 wins this season have been by double-digits.
I don't think Connecticut is playable here with Jones out, and it very well may be that the Wings have the better roster if you take her out of the equation.
Pick: Wings +1
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Sky at Liberty Odds
| Sky Odds | -6 |
| Liberty Odds | +6 |
| Over/Under | 169 |
| Time | 7 p.m. ET |
| Odds as of Tuesday and via BetMGM. | |
Injuries & News
Astou Ndour-Fall (10.1 PPG) is the only Sky player listed on the injury report. She’s currently away from the team for an undisclosed amount of time due to a personal matter.
New York lists three players on its injury report: Natasha Howard (14.5 PPG), Kia Stokes (2.2 PPG) and Jocelyn Willoughby have all been ruled out. Howard will be out four-to-six weeks with an MCL sprain in her left knee while Stokes is overseas competing in the 2021 European Women Basketball Championship. Willoughby is done for the season after tearing her Achilles’ in a team scrimmage.
Liberty Facing Looming Regression
Though the New York Liberty are 7-6 with the fourth-best win percentage, no team has a greater disparity if you consider their Pythagorean win expectation. According to Basketball-Reference, the Liberty profile more like a 4-9 basketball team. In fact, New York is the only team in league with a winning record that has an average point differential that's negative. After a 5-1 start, we've seen that regression occur, as evidenced by their 2-5 record in the last seven games.
While I'm aware that injuries are part of the game, New York has yet to beat a decent team this season that's been at full strength. I'm not going to count their first two wins against the Fever, who, despite being relatively healthy to start the season, are just 1-14 on the year. I'm referring to the other teams New York defeated like a Wings team without Satou Sabally, a Lynx team without Napheesa Collier, a Sky team without Candace Parker, a Mercury team without Diana Taurasi, and a Sparks team without both Ogwumike sisters.
Figure this: The only team in league with a worse net rating than New York is Indiana. That's not exactly the company that a winning team should want to keep.
With Parker now back from her ankle injury, I expect that we'll see a quality performance from a Sky team that has the third-best defensive net rating in the league. Chicago is also third in opponent three-point field goals per game (6.4) and first in allowing only 18.1 three-pointers per game.
Those numbers suggest that not only are they good at defending the perimeter, but their defense also forces their opponents to take fewer attempts. That should be key against a Liberty team that leads in both three-point field goals per game (10.9) and attempts per game (29.1).
Historically Chicago is 30-23 (+5.79 units) as a road favorite, but against New York in this spot, they have a perfect 5-0 mark.
This is a good revenge spot for the Chicago to atone for their 93-85 loss to New York in the first meeting, and I would lay the five points with them at Bet365.
Pick: Sky -6
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Mystics at Storm Odds
| Mystics Odds | +14 |
| Storm Odds | -14 |
| Over/Under | 165 |
| Time | 10 p.m. ET |
| Odds as of Tuesday and via BetMGM. | |
Injuries & News
The Mystics injury report has now swelled to six players: Myisha Hines-Allen (14 PPG), Natasha Cloud (6.9 PPG), Erica McCall (4.2 PPG), Kiara Leslie (3.1 PPG), Elena Delle Donne, and Alysha Clark have all been ruled out for Tuesday.
Seattle’s Mikiah Herbert Harrigan will not play for the remainder of the season as she’s expecting a child.
Mystics' Injury Report Results In Significant Line Move
This line opened with Seattle as an 8.5-point favorite, but in less than an hour, it was bet up to as high as -14. This move is likely due to the Mystics' injury report missing two players (Hines-Allen and Cloud) from their starting lineup. Washington will also likely field an extremely short bench for this game and with so many players sidelined, I'm less interested in getting involved in this game.
Pick: Pass
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