Saturday brings a fun slate of WNBA games to your TV, leading with a pair of ESPN afternoon games (Sun vs. Dream; Aces vs. Lynx) and wrapping up with a pair of evening matchups on Twitter (Sparks vs. Wings) and then NBA TV (Sky vs. Storm).
WNBA lines have been moving around plenty, with openers coming out nice and early Friday night, but there are still plenty of actionable bets to be found, so let's dive right into the action.
I have full previews for both ESPN games, so those writeups will be much briefer, but we'll dig deeper on the two late games.
WNBA Odds & Picks
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| Matchup | Time |
| Sun vs. Dream | 1 p.m. ET |
| Aces vs. Lynx | 3 p.m. ET |
| Sparks vs. Wings | 8 p.m. ET |
| Sky vs. Storm | 9 p.m. ET |
Sun vs. Dream Odds
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 167.5 -114 / -106 | -104 |
| Dream Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 167.5 -114 / -106 | -118 |
In my preview for this game, I noted how the matchup favored the over.
The Dream turn the ball over plenty, and the Sun thrive in terms of points off turnovers. The Sun, however, are vulnerable on the offensive glass, and the Dream make teams who can't clear the boards pay with lots of second-chance points.
I also noted that we should be on the look out for Cheyenne Parker and Nia Coffey props. Parker's lines are still at 12.5 points and 7.5 rebounds, respectively, but heavily juiced to the under. I still see a bit of value there, but not full plays. Same deal for Coffey's 7.5 rebounds. The books have sniffed out this line a bit, but I still lean to the over here.
Bets: Over 167.5; Cheyenne Parker under 12.5 points and 7.5 rebounds; Nia Coffey under 7.5 rebounds
Pick: Over 167.5 |
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Aces vs. Lynx Odds
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -105 | 170.5 -106 / -114 | -1500 |
| Lynx Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -115 | 170.5 -106 / -114 | +790 |
My best bet from the preview was the Aces in the second quarter. The line wasn't out at the time, but I had guessed it would be 4.5.
Double good news: The line is now out and it's even better than I hoped! Caesars has the Aces -3.5 (-105) in the second quarter, so that's a definite best bet.
The logic centered around the two teams being at polar opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to second quarter net rating.
Bet: Aces -3.5 second quarter spread (Caesars)
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Sparks vs. Wings Odds
| Sparks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -120 | 164.5 -110 / -110 | +300 |
| Wings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -102 | 164.5 -110 / -110 | -400 |
In the intro, I noted that I would expand on my picks for the latter two games, but then the books went and hung a couple props that align perfectly with my recent player prop article.
As such, I am going under on Satou Sabally's points and rebounds props at DraftKings. The books dropped 17.5 points and 8.5 rebounds despite Sabally averaging 13.6 points and 6.8 rebounds over the past month, which also happens to coincide with when Teaira McCowan returned.
Bet: Sabally under 17.5 points and 8.5 rebounds (DraftKings)
Pick: Sabally Under 8.5 Rebounds |
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Sky vs. Storm Odds
| Sky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 159.5 -110 / -110 | +104 |
| Storm Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 159.5 -110 / -110 | -128 |
The capper on a full day of WNBA basketball, Sky vs. Storm should be a close game that may well end up as a pick `em. Although the Sky have twice as many wins as the Storm, the two really aren't all that far apart in reality.
The Sky are 3-10 since a fast start, and the Storm have added a key piece (Gabby Williams) to the mix midseason.
However, I am going to be looking to player props once again for my best bet.
Kahleah Copper has looked excellent under new head coach Emre Vatansever. Her points per game have jumped from 16.5 to 19.6 under her new head coach, buttressed by increases in usage (from 26.3 percent to 28.3 percent) and field-goal attempts (14.9 per game to 16.6 per game). Copper also has an incredibly high floor to her points prop, having scored at least 14 points in each of her last eight games.
I am also looking at Jewell Loyd's under in part because of Chicago's three-point defense. The Sky allow the fewest threes per game to their opponents of any team in the W (6.1), and Loyd gets more points from beyond the arc than any other player in the league (10.6 PPG from three).
It's terrifying betting against one of the most explosive players in the league, but she also had just 13 in her first game after the All-Star Game (where she was voted MVP).
Bets: Copper over 17.5 points; Loyd under 25.5 points (half unit)
Pick: Copper Over 17.5 Points |
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