The Connecticut Sun are the biggest underdogs left in the WNBA Playoffs.
Now, they'll be opposite of the Minnesota Lynx, arguably the hottest team in the league, who enter the semifinals having won 16 of their last 18, including a first-round sweep.
The Sun were able to stifle the Indiana Fever in Game 1, and outlasted a late surge in Game 2 — now, into the semis, they look to reach their second WNBA Finals in three years.
Connecticut Sun Odds vs. Lynx
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 155 -110 / -110 | +154 |
| Lynx Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 155 -110 / -110 | -192 |
- Sun vs. Lynx spread: Sun +4.5
- Sun vs. Lynx over/under: 155 points
- Sun vs. Lynx moneylines: Sun +154, Lynx -192
Why The Connecticut Sun Can Cover In Game 1
The Sun-Fever match-ups between Games 1 and 2 were very difficult.
Game 1, Sun total went over, Fever way under, game total under. Game 2, everyone went slightly over.
The Sun covered in Game 1 no matter what line you bet. Game 2? It depends. They won 87-81, and generally, the line was Sun -5.5, it's possible that you grabbed it at -6.5, though, earlier in the day. Kelsey Mitchell hit a shot in the final seconds to cut the lead to six — and then she missed the and-one attempt to cover the 5.5.
So with the Game 2, spread, you were hanging by a thread.
Totals will be the most interesting thing about this series from a betting angle. On the surface, you should expect unders, but the total opened at around 150.5, which is just too damn low, even for me — and I love betting under totals in playoff games. That number got bet up to 154.5 as of this writing, that's worth monitoring.
The Lynx beat the Sun on Sept. 17 in Connecticut 78-76 — at 154 total. The Sun beat the Lynx in an even lower scoring 78-73 game on July 4, totaling 151. And their first game in Connecticut, the Sun won 83-82 in overtime on May 23. Heading into OT, it was 72-72 — a 144 total.
Player-wise, I think the Sun's ability to generate shots will be paramount. I'm looking for Alyssa Thomas to have more do-it-all all efforts, but her playmaking will be especially leaned on to find shooters like DiJonai Carrington and Marina Mabrey, plus DeWanna Bonner's shot creation will be a necessity throughout, especially late in close games.
Sun vs. Lynx
Betting Pick & Prediction for the Sun: Target Thomas' PRA Prop
Alyssa Thomas' points, rebounds, assists prop is at 31.5 for Game 1. She has gotten to 30, 36 and 37 against the Lynx this season, and she's gone over 31.5 in four straight games where she has logged at least 35 minutes. And if you do this, you'll have to sprinkle on the Triple Double, which is +370 — she got one against the Lynx in July and had one in Game 1 against the Fever.
Pick: Alyssa Thomas over 31.5 PRA (-104 on FanDuel) | Alyssa Thomas Triple Double Sprinkle (+370 on FanDuel)
How to Watch: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Sun vs. Lynx | Sunday, September 29 |
| Start Time: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN / ESPN+, YouTube TV |
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota |
Sun vs. Lynx is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET live from Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota on Wednesday. Game 1 of the semifinals WNBA playoff matchup is airing on TV on ESPN and streaming live on ESPN+ and YouTube TV.
Connecticut Sun Betting Trends
- Sun are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Sun are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread.
- Sun are 11-9 in their road games against the spread.
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Sun' last 5 games.
- The totals have gone OVER in 8 of Sun' 20 last games at home.
