The Aces seek to join some rare company by becoming only the second team (Houston Comets – 1997 to 2000) in WNBA history to win three or more consecutive titles. To do so, they'll have to get past a Liberty team that's out for revenge after losing to the Aces in last year's finals.
New York looks as determined as ever coming off that loss. It posted a 32-8 record in the regular season en route to the top overall seed.
Thus, the Liberty will have home-court advantage as it hosts the Aces in Game 1 of the WNBA semifinals on Sunday afternoon.
Given the familiarity between these teams, it'll be interesting to see how both sides approach the series opener. In this preview, I'll share how a late-season adjustment by the Aces now influences their style of play.
We'll also explore how that change in style could impact the total and an A'ja Wilson's player prop results in my Las Vegas Aces WNBA Game 1 picks and predictions for Sunday, September 29 versus the New York Liberty.
Las Vegas Aces Odds vs. Liberty
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+4 -112 | 163.5 -106 / -114 | +152 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-4 -108 | 163.5 -106 / -114 | -188 |
- Aces vs. Liberty spread: Liberty -4
- Aces vs. Liberty over/under: 163.5 points
- Aces vs. Liberty moneylines: Aces +152, Liberty -188
Why The Las Vegas Aces Can Cover In Game 1
Las Vegas couldn't overcome a championshp hangover, playing .500 basketball through their first 12 games. Although the Aces ranked second in Offensive Efficiency (105.4 points per 100 possessions) it was miles off from the previous season when it posted a 113.0 rating.
Surprisingly, those offensive numbers dropped despite the Aces playing at a slightly faster pace while also attempting more shots per game. Defensively, there were even bigger problems, as Las Vegas went from first (97.7) to ninth (104.2) in efficiency.
Throughout the season, Aces head coach Becky Hammon criticized her players for lacking effort and a defensive identity.
At one point, Aces center A'ja Wilson even acknowledged the lack of effort when speaking to reporters.
"It's just a matter of, do we want to get it done? The confidence is there, the talk is going to always be there," Wilson said. "But are we going to put the work in to get it done? Are we going to do the extra little things?"
The Aces did play six games over .500 in their next 18 games, improving their defensive efficiency by almost five points from 104.2 to 99.3.
However, that mark still lagged behind last year's performance.
The turnaround wasn't fully complete until they suffered a 93-90 road loss to Dallas in late August. Since then, they went 9-1 to finish out the season while posting the best Defensive Rating with a 94.3 value.
There has been one noticeable difference involving their tempo. Las Vegas averaged 78.5 possessions per 40 minutes in those games, which is the slowest pace they've played at all season.
That trend even continued during the first round of the playoffs against Seattle, with the average pace per 40 minutes down to 76.75.
It's worth noting that Seattle played at a pace of 81.09 possessions, which was the third-fastest tempo in the league.
Considering that New York finished seventh in pace (80.12), we could see a matchup of two teams peaking on defense while being completely comfortable with taking a much more deliberate approach on offense.
Aces vs. Liberty
Betting Pick & Prediction For The Aces
By now, I hope you've been able to follow along with our reasoning for a lower-scoring game. But if you're still not convinced, our Action Labs database shows that the under has cashed in the Aces' last 10 games with a total of 170 points.
That trend is active for Sunday, with the total available at 163.5.
Bettors can also find some correlation with the total and Wilson's scoring prop under 24.5 points. The Aces' center hasn't gone over that number in four of her last five games when facing a team with a top-five defense.
Moreover, she's stayed under this number in 10 of her last 11 meetings against the Liberty.
If our assumptions for a low-scoring game are correct, then it makes sense to also consider the under with Wilson's scoring prop.
Pick: Under 163.5 points (-110) | A'ja Wilson Under 24.5 Points (-120 at DraftKings)
