Sparks vs. Aces Odds
| Sparks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+15.5 -110 | 167.5 -110/-110 | +900 |
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-15.5 -110 | 167.5 -110/-110 | -1600 |
The Los Angeles Sparks (6-20) go on the road to face the reigning champs, the Las Vegas Aces (16-9) on Sunday, August 18. Both teams will be on the second leg of a back-to-back, though Las Vegas has an advantage in that it isn't traveling.
Keep reading for my Sparks vs. Aces prediction, which includes a WNBA pick and odds.
Los Angeles Sparks
The struggling Sparks led by 10 points over Chicago entering the fourth quarter on Saturday, but their offense completely collapsed. They scored a mere 12 points in the frame and subsequently lost yet another contest. Los Angeles is 6-20 on the season and 2-10 since rookie Cameron Brink tore her ACL.
To make matters worse, starting point guard Aari McDonald will likely miss the Aces game. She paces the team in assists per game and ranks in the 86th percentile for points per shot on catch-and-shoot jumpers. Meanwhile, Lexie Brown is out indefinitely. The Duke product is third in assists per game behind McDonald and Dearica Hamby.
Absences from both McDonald and Brown are a significant blow for a Sparks squad that's 10th in offensive rating. The Sparks must squeeze every drop of playmaking that they can get from their healthy players, especially Hamby.
Las Vegas Aces
Las Vegas is coming off a disappointing 12-point loss to the New York Liberty. Yes, the Liberty are an exceptional team that lead the league in net rating, but the Aces are back-to-back champs and still possess the best player in the world, as well as excellent complementary pieces like Kelsey Plum, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray.
Plum, in particular, struggled against New York. She went 0-for-8 from three, which marked just the second time all season that the sharpshooter failed to hit a three. Given her touch, look for Plum to bounce back here.
On a high note, A’ja Wilson continued to dominate the field. She is up to 27.2 points per game and her true shooting percentage is 6.6% higher than the league average. That's a special blend of volume scoring and efficiency.
Sparks vs. Aces
Betting Pick & Prediction
Laying 15 points is never an enjoyable bet, but sometimes you just have to grit your teeth.
The Aces rarely give away points. Their offense has the lowest turnover percentage and their defense allows the lowest offensive rebound rate and the third lowest free-throw attempt rate. Additionally, Las Vegas surrenders the fewest shots in the restricted area, as well as the second fewest corner attempts per game.
In other words, the Aces typically win the shot quality battle and limit mistakes. That’s a recipe for blowout wins against undisciplined, inefficient teams.
Enter the Sparks, who rank ninth in effective field goal percentage and turn the ball over at the third largest rate. Without McDonald and Brown setting the table, it will likely be a struggle for the Sparks to consistently generate high-value shots. Expect Los Angeles’ offense to flounder in this matchup.
On the other end, the Sparks are second to last in defensive rating since Brink’s injury. Their paint defense leaves plenty to be desired, which doesn't bode well against Wilson and company. Additionally, opponents have hurt them off the dribble from above the break. Plum and Young should feast.
The Aces have massive advantages in this matchup and I expect them to come out with a chip on their shoulder after Saturday’s loss to New York.
Pick: Aces -15 | Play to 15.5 |
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