The WNBA is back with a blockbuster matchup on Saturday afternoon, with the Las Vegas Aces hosting the New York Liberty.
This will be the second meeting between the two teams this season after New York claimed a 90-82 victory on the road.
Given the high-powered offenses between these teams, it's no surprise that the total opened at 175.5. However, with that number now bet down to as low as 173.5 at some books, I'll share why that market move is justified.
Liberty vs Aces Prediction: Bet the Under
- My Liberty vs Aces best bet is on the under, even with the market movement on the total. At FanDuel, in the hours before tip off, the over/under is back up to 174, which gives us some more value, given that I would bet this to 172.5.
Liberty vs Aces Odds
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -114 | 174 -110o / -110u | +138 |
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -106 | 174 -110o / -110u | -170 |
The defending champion Aces are 3.5-point favorites at home on Saturday against the Liberty in this 2023 WNBA Finals rematch. Las Vegas is -170 on the moneyline, with New York +138 to pull off the slight upset win on the road. The total is currently over/under 174 at FanDuel, although that has been bet as low as 172.5 at some places before this marquee matchup.
Liberty vs Aces Preview
New York Liberty: New York Has Been Rolling
After facing one another in the 2023 WNBA Finals, New York and Las Vegas entered the season with the shortest odds to win the WNBA title.
And while the Liberty jumped out a 10-2 start, the Aces were mediocre at best with a 6-6 mark through 12 games.
New York hasn't slowed down much, as it now boasts a 22-4 record, a three-game lead in the standings, and a five-game lead over Las Vegas.
The difference with the Liberty this season has primarily been on the defensive end of the floor. New York's defensive efficiency improved by four points from 99.4 to 95.
Last year, the Liberty's bench often struggled defensively when the starters were out of the game.
The team lacked the flexibility of defenders capable of switching on and off players, particularly on the perimeter.
Stefanie Dolson's departure at center allows New York to play with a smaller lineup following the additions of forwards Leonie Fiebich and Kennedy Burke.
It's worth noting that New York now has five players off the bench who average double figures in minutes compared to only three last year.
Las Vegas Aces: Improved Defense a Sign of Things to Come?
The Aces' slow start has arguably been the biggest head-scratcher of the year thus far. It's not as if Las Vegas lost multiple key players in the offseason after coming off a second-straight WNBA title.
Even with Chelsea Gray missing the start of the campaign with a leg injury, the Aces should have had enough options to withstand her absence.
However, the numbers might suggest that Gray is indeed invaluable. Since her return on Jun. 19, Las Vegas has rattled off 10 wins in 12 games.
But perhaps we shouldn't be too surprised, considering that according to Basketball-Reference, Gray had the second-best Defensive Wins Shares (2.3) for the Aces in 2023 behind A'ja Wilson (3.5).
We've also seen the Aces improve their defensive rating from 104.2 through the first 12 games to 96.5 with Gray back on the court.
Thus, this Aces team has been much better defensively of late than earlier in the season.
We should expect that trend to continue as Las Vegas looks to finish strong heading into the playoffs.
Liberty vs. Aces Prediction: Bet the Under
Liberty vs Aces Best Bet, Pick
While there's no question these teams take pride in guarding the perimeter, that defensive integrity wasn't entirely on display in the first meeting. Both teams hit double-digit 3-pointers from beyond the arc, combining from 23 in the game.
For the season, New York ranks in the top half of the league (fifth) in 3-pointers allowed (7.1 per game), and although the Aces are currently seventh (8.2 per game) in this category, they've improved to fourth (6.5 per game) since Gray's return.
Thus, I'd expect both teams to do a better job on the perimeter this time, which should correlate with a slightly lower-scoring game.
According to our Action Labs database, the under is 5-0-1 historically in games involving either the Liberty or Aces that were bet down with an opening total of 175.5 or more points.
After shopping around, FanDuel has the best price on the board, with the under at 173 points.
Liberty vs Aces Pick: Under 174 | Bet to Under 172.5 |
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