I have multiple WNBA picks tonight for the Commissioner's Cup Championship between the Lynx and Liberty, so let's get right into the picks and break down tonight's WNBA best bets.
| Lynx Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -106 | 164 -110o / -110u | +190 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -114 | 164 -110o / -110u | -240 |
The Liberty are the top-ranked team in my power ratings and deserve to be favored in what is a “home” game, despite the location moving from the Barclays Center (their usual home court) to the UBS Arena due to a scheduling conflict with the NBA Draft. I’m still giving New York its full two-point home-court advantage here.
The Liberty will be facing a Lynx team that has been the most surprising team this season at 13-3. I think they might still be a bit underrated as they have had the second-toughest schedule to date, while the Liberty have had the third-easiest, according to my SoS rankings.
It’s what makes Minnesota's league-leading defensive rating of 90.6 (1st) even more impressive. The Lynx's defense has been exceptionally good at preventing 3s as they have allowed the lowest 3-point percentage in the league at 27.1% and the second-lowest percentage of points from beyond the arc. The Liberty lean on 3s heavily (1st in 3s per FG attempts) and score the second-highest percentage of points from 3s.
The Liberty are also a very good defensive team (4th in defensive rating) and great at preventing free throws as they send their opponents to the line at the lowest rate in the league. They’ve also benefited a bit from luck as they’ve allowed the lowest free-throw percentage in the league (something that is outside of their control).
The Lynx don't rely on getting to the line and score the fewest percentage of points from the free-throw line.
I think this matchup favors the Lynx to at least keep it close and I consider them to be one of the top teams in the league right now, especially when you factor in how impressive they’ve been with such a tough schedule.
I was projecting this game closer to Liberty -3.5 with a total of 163.5. I’m taking the Lynx +5.5 (it’s at +6 in some spots if you line shop). I'm also eyeing some player props, which are listed below.
Jonquel Jones (Liberty) Rebound Leader +270 (FanDuel) 1 unit
FanDuel is offering some game-leader props for tonight's game. I ran my simulation to get exact odds for every player and every market. The rebounds market is really a three-way race between Jones, Breanna Stewart and Napheesa Collier.
Jones should be the slight favorite in my sim and I’m projecting her closer to +170 for fair odds in this market.
Kayla McBride (Lynx) Points Leader +1100 (FanDuel) 0.8 units
Sabrina Ionescu, Collier and Stewart should be the clear favorites for this market. However, McBride is worth a flier at 11-1 odds because she can get hot from beyond the arc and there is too much variance in a single game to be offering her this high.
I’m projecting her closer to +550 fair odds in this market.
Bridget Carleton (Lynx) Points Leader +5000 (FanDuel) 0.3 units
Similar to McBride, there is enough variance in a single game where I think offering Carleton at 50-1 here is too high. She is capable of making a handful of 3s and scoring 15-20 points, so if it’s a lower-scoring game, where the scoring is fairly even among the stars, Carleton can sneak in as the game’s leading point scorer.
