The New York Liberty are up 2-0 on their playoff rival, the Las Vegas Aces. This series now moves back to Vegas, where the Aces went from 4-point underdogs to 3-point favorites.
The shift in home-court advantage is worth 7 cumulative points, or roughly 3.5 points in each direction. This is spot on. We have also seen the total be completely flat at 166. Both Games 1 and 2 closed at 166.5, and with slight under action in this game it is sticking half a point lower. I am looking to fade some scoring and back home court advantage.
WNBA Player Prop Picks
Jackie Young Under 14.5 Points (-115 Caesars)
Young went crazy in Game 2! Her shot making was amazing, and she really filled in the gap for Kelsey Plum, who struggled to find her shot and dealt with foul trouble leading to less minutes.
In the Young/Tiffany Hayes backcourt minutes for the Aces, Young was asked to be the focal point and her step back and quick shot were consistently going in. She was probably the Aces best player through 3.5 quarters of Game 2.
However, I want to fade her boosted line of a solid performance. Plum had two fouls in the first two minutes, and simply wasn't herself. I think Plum plays better, as she has always played the Liberty well, and Young's usage will take a dip.
Under 14.5 is my first prop play for a full unit in this game.
A'Ja Wilson Under 23.5 Points (+100 BetRivers)
I have been backing the Liberty in this series on game lines, and a key reason has been the defense on Wilson.
Jonquel Jones has the size to not demand weak side help, and it is causing Wilson fits. She is expecting to be able to use her size and draw the double team, but the Liberty are matching her with Jones and only bringing help on strong-side opportunities.
Wilson's impact in Game 2 was minimal until the fourth quarter, when her mid-range shot started to drop. If she is being forced to produce a volume of points off the midrange, and I can play her under at no vig, this is a no brainer.
FanDuel lists this line at -130 to the under at 24.5, but I would rather take the reduced line and reduced vig.
Alysha Clark Over 3 Pointers Made (unlisted)
There are no lines for this angle yet, but it is something I am keeping an eye on. Alysha Clark is a key part of the Aces defensive game plan against the Liberty because of her size and defensive versatility. On offense, she acts as a floor spacing shooter, and not much else. Clark has won three championships in her time in the WNBA, however in Game 2, it was noticeable she was passing out of shots.
In the fourth quarter, she drilled the game tying 3 and was playing in the most critical minutes of the game. Now back at home, this is a classic bet on role players to shoot well in their own building. I would look to Clark's over on 3s made, as well as escalated odds for like 3+ and 4+ or game leader if those odds pop up!
After doing this write up, I'm realizing my three favorite props are on the Aces side. I think that actually makes a lot of sense given how systematic and predictable the Liberty lineups, rotations and game plans have been.
The Aces side features a team down 0-2 and returning home. They're going to make subtle adjustments that can be attacked through the prop market. If the Aces win this game, I plan to bet the Liberty to win the WNBA title immediately once those lines open.
