Tuesday features a pair of WNBA Game 2 contests and several WNBA player props that I'm eyeing. Unlike in Round 1, which is played as a best-of-three format, the semifinals are a five-game series in which the home court changes after Game 2.
The Liberty were seemingly on cruise control as they took Game 1, but the Game 2 spread has taken some action on the Las Vegas Aces.
In the other series, the Sun won on the road in Minnesota and stole home-court advantage with a dominant fourth quarter performance. However, the Lynx opened as 4.5-point favorites in Game 2 and the line is staying there, sometimes flashing at -5.
A classic playoff basketball angle favors the team down 0-1 in desperation mode. However, I think the prop market is the place to attack as the game lines are seemingly very sharp. So, let's get to my three favorite WNBA player prop picks for Tuesday, October 1.
Kayla McBride Over 13.5 Points (-104 at FanDuel)
I am of the opinion that Alyssa Thomas is the best defender in the WNBA, despite Napheesa Collier winning the award earlier this week.
Thomas is matched up up with Collier, which creates a lot of problems for Minnesota's offense. If the Lynx are going to find their groove in this game, McBride will have to create space with her shooting. I think the gameplan will be to get McBride open early and often, and give her the green light.
With the low vig, I like this prop for one unit.
Brionna Jones Under 4.5 Rebounds (-104 at FanDuel)
Jones isn't a great fit in this series. As Jim Turvey broke down on "Buckets WNBA", Minnesota's spacing creates issues for her as a paint presence, and the Sun rotate in their backup big, Olivia Nelson-Ododa.
In Game 1, we played Under 11.5 points, but that line is down to 8.5 after she only scored six. Her minutes were greatly reduced, as expected, and the Sun won, so I expect a similar rotation. Her rebounds prop hasn't moved, only a slight change in vig from +104 to -104 between Games 1 and 2, so that's my preferred angle to attack this matchup issue.
I would only play this for half a unit because some of the value has dried up.
Leonie Fiebich Over 8.5 Points (-114 at FanDuel)
Fiebich is the key role player who unlocked the Liberty's dominance. She wasn't present in the matchup last season with the Aces, and the Liberty's win rate with her in the starting lineup is north of 90%.
Her presence showed in Game 1 as she was a key defender and floor spacer. I expect another efficient performance with a lot of playing time, especially if the Aces keep it closer — which they likely will without travel and time zone disparity.
