The Phoenix Mercury travel to face the Seattle Storm on Saturday, September 7. It’s the calm before the storm, as tomorrow features a five-game slate. Check out my WNBA player props for Mercury vs Storm tonight.
WNBA Player Props for Saturday, September 7
- Brittney Griner Over 17.5 Points (-115)
- Brittney Griner First Basket (+300)
- Exact Method: Free Throws (+4700)
Mercury vs Storm Player Props: Expect a Quality Scoring Night From Brittney Griner
Seattle ranks fourth in defensive rating, so points will not be an easy feat for Phoenix. However, Brittney Griner’s shot profile predicts a quality scoring night for her.
The Storm’s defense allows the following:
- Second most rim attempts
- Most around-the-basket attempts
- Most paint attempts
They bleed shots near the hoop, which means Griner should see plenty of volume. She paces Phoenix at nine shots per game inside the paint, and the height advantage gives her a natural edge against Seattle’s tough defense that other Mercury scorers lack.
To be more granular, opponents average the fourth most points per post-up possession and fifth most points per roller possession. Those two play types form the bulk of Griner’s offensive production.
Finally, Griner has scored 18+ points in 15-of-25 games this season, or 60%. Her season-high 28 points came against the Storm too.
I would play this down at one unit, down to -125 odds. If it breaches that threshold, then I recommend playing 20+ points at +136 odds instead.
Mercury vs Storm Player Props: First Basket Best Bets
As stated above, it’s an excellent matchup for Griner compared to the Mercury’s other scorers. She’s no stranger to opening games with a field goal attempt either. Griner has taken Phoenix’s first shot of the game in 13-of-25 starts. That 52% mark leads the league.
The Mercury should secure the first possession due to Griner’s tipoff dominance, and I expect her to take the first shot. Additionally, betting her to score first via free throws is worth a sprinkle at +4700 odds. The fact that she will live around the basket encourages trips to the charity stripe. In her sole matchup against the Storm this season, she racked up seven free throws – her second most of the season.
I recommend playing Griner to score the first basket at one unit, down to +280 odds. Meanwhile, I suggest 0.1 units, down to +4000 odds for her exact method.
