Thursday's props were a perfect example of a “correct read, wrong result.” You can't win them all.
Luckily, the WNBA's four-game slate for Friday should be action-packed, and a few rebounding props have caught my eye as we look for a quick bounce-back before the weekend.
Take a look at my WNBA player props for on Friday, August 23.
WNBA Player Props for Friday, August 23
Sky vs Sun Player Prop: Fade Angel Reese?
There is no denying that Reese’s rookie season has been a success, particularly on the glass.
In fact, Reese set a WNBA record (as a rookie) for most consecutive double-doubles, recording 15 straight games with at least 10 points and 10 rebounds. While Reese can still make significant strides in her efficiency, she is already an All-Star and a high-impact player.
So, why in the world are we fading her rebounding prop tonight, especially since she ranks first in the league in rebounds per game?
For one, Reese’s rebounding performances against Connecticut so far this season have been underwhelming, relative to her average, at least.
In two games against the Sun, Reese has averaged merely 7.5 rebounds and has been well-below this line (12.5) in both outings.
The Sun rank third in offensive and defensive rebounding percentage and rank dead-last in pace (by far), meaning there will be fewer possessions for both teams and, thus, fewer opportunities for Reese to collect boards.
Additionally, the Sun lock in on the defensive end, ranking second in defensive rating, only 0.1 point behind the Minnesota Lynx. Reese pulls down a lot of her rebounds off of her own misses, but Connecticut does a great job in limiting opponent’s offensive rebounding opportunities (third in opponent OREB%) and second-chance points (second in opponent second-chance points).
This will be one of the few times that we fade Reese’s rebounding, as she is one of the best in that category in the league; unfortunately, this matchup is nightmarish for her rebounding prop.
Pick: Angel Reese Under 12.5 Rebounds (-136)
Mercury vs Dream Player Prop: Ideal Matchup for Tina Charles
Charles is typically a risky player to back on the glass, but this matchup is too ideal to pass up.
This season, the Mercury have allowed the most second-chance points to opponents and boast the lowest defensive rebounding percentage in the WNBA.
Phoenix also ranks eighth in the league in opponent points in the paint this year and 11th (out of 12 teams) in offensive rebounding percentage, meaning Charles should have some effortless rebounds around the rim.
Further, Charles has had back-to-back massive rebounding nights, pulling down 15 and 17 boards in her past two outings. Of course, her most recent game was the 17-rebound performance against the Mercury.
On paper, this matchup would not look good for Charles, who will be going up against 6-foot-9 Brittney Griner; however, Charles has had recent success versus Griner and the Mercury. We will ride with Charles to have another strong rebounding performance on Friday.
Pick: Tina Charles Over 9.5 Rebounds (-102)
