The WNBA Semifinals are set to tip off Sunday following four first-round sweeps. We have the Las Vegas Aces taking on the New York Liberty at Barclays Center, and the Connecticut Sun traveling cross country to take on the Minnesota Lynx.
When analyzing the prop market, I like to first examine how the spreads and totals have been moving so we understand what the sharp expected outcomes are. The Liberty and Sun (surprising to me) have been the sides taking action for Game 1, and the totals have been relatively flat.
Of course, we know the Liberty and Aces were the WNBA's two most high-scoring offenses this season, while the Lynx and Sun ranked first and second on the defensive side. No matter who comes out of each bracket, the Finals will feature a top defense vs. a top offense — exciting!
Here are my favorite WNBA player props for Kelsey Plum, Brionna Jones and Courtney Williams on Sunday, September 29.
WNBA Player Props, Picks & Predictions — Sunday, September 29
Aces vs Liberty Game 1 Player Props: Fade Kelsey Plum
Kelsey Plum was dominant in the closeout game against the Seattle Storm, starting the contest on fire by hitting her first six shots and finishing with a game-high 29 points. Plum, however, was quite inconsistent during the season and is now on the road against a deep Liberty team that has solid defense.
I want to fade Plum's points prop coming off an awesome game. The total has dropped one point in this game, and while thats not a staggering move, it still aligns to play an under.
I have noticed the Aces have a number of backcourt players they can rely on beyond Plum — whether that be Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young or Tiffany Hayes. They don't always need to rely on Plum to get points.
Sun vs Lynx Game 1 Player Props: Brionna Jones' Uncertain Role
Sun center Brionna Jones saw her minutes and usage drop in the first round because of the matchup against a faster team with more spacing. We have a similar scenario here against the Lynx, as they often space five out with a bunch of shooters.
The Lynx bring backup center Alanna Smith off the bench; she shoots north of 40% from 3.
With the spacing the Lynx are likely to roll out, I suspect we see another minutes and usage reduction for Jones and a large role off the bench for Olivia Nelson-Ododa.
Sun vs Lynx Game 1 Player Props: Courtney Williams Will Get Buckets
Courtney Williams is a smart and savvy veteran who uses her quickness and acceleration to beat her opponents.
In Round 1, the Sun used Marina Mabrey as their point guard and went with an increase in size to defend the Fever. If the Sun go back to this group, which I suspect they will, then Williams becomes the Lynx's go-to player to beat size with her speed.
I think Williams looks to push in transition and attack off the dribble. As a result, I'm on Williams' points over.
