After nearly one month off due to the Olympics, the WNBA will pick back up with a three-game slate Thursday night headlined by the New York Liberty, who will travel to Los Angeles for a matchup with the struggling Sparks.
Let’s discuss the rationale and analysis behind our player props for Angel Reese and Sabrina Ionescu on Thursday, August 15!
WNBA Player Props Today | Thursday, August 15
Phoenix Mercury vs. Chicago Sky
8:00 PM EST, Amazon Prime
Angel Reese could have some issues scoring the basketball on Thursday night.
Since Reese’s offensive game is limited primarily to shots inside of five feet, she is consistently forced to rely on finishing around the basket to put points on the board.
Unfortunately for Reese, she has had some issues with efficiency in the paint this season, converting on merely 46.4% of her shots inside five feet.
Reese scores 64.8% of her points in the paint and 28.3% from the free-throw line. That might not be a problem against undersized teams or teams that don’t have the rim protection and shot-blocking talent of Phoenix, but this is just one of those glaringly bad matchups.
This marks Reese’s first game against Brittney Griner and Natasha Mack, two of the “W’s” best shot blockers; they rank eighth and ninth in the league in blocks per game, respectively, for players who have logged at least 15 games this season.
The Mercury also allow the third-fewest field goal attempts inside of five feet, and Reese ranks dead-last in the league in blocked field goal attempts per game.
Reese has solid positional size at power forward (6-foot-3), but Mack is 6-foot-4, and Griner is 6-foot-9. The paint will be jam-packed with trees, and Reese often takes most of her shots with her feet on the floor or very close to it. Griner simply has to extend her arm to deter her shot.
Further, Reese has fallen short of this prop’s line in four consecutive games. Even though the Mercury are not the league’s shining example of limiting second-chance points, it’s still challenging to see Reese have much success against two elite shot-blocking bigs with terrific size.
Pick: Angel Reese Under 13.5 Points (-135)
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks
9:00 PM EST, ESPN
Now that Team USA has won Gold at the Olympics, Ionescu will re-direct her sights to a WNBA Championship.
The dynamic duo of Ionescu and Breanna Stewart has led the Liberty to an impressive 21-4 record, which is atop the league.
Before departing for Paris, Ionescu was on a tear, averaging 24.4 points on 44.4% shooting from the field, 41.3% from behind the arc, and 92% from the charity stripe in her past five games. She would have hit the Over on this line in all five outings.
Ionescu and the Liberty face a very exploitable Sparks defense on Thursday night. The Sparks rank 10th in the WNBA in defensive rating, 11th in turnover percentage, and dead-last in opponent 3P% (36.9%).
If that didn’t swing you, perhaps this will: Ionescu takes the third-most 3-pointers per game in the league at 8.3 attempts, but in her past five games, that number has risen to 9.2. Ionescu should have a big outing against one of the worst perimeter defenses in the W.
