We've made it to the WNBA Conference finals, and unsurprisingly, we're down to the top four teams in the league to determine who'll make it to the Finals.
Before we jump into today's props, let's begin with a record update.
- WNBA season: 39-27
- WNBA playoffs: 7-4
- Since August 8: 25-10
The New York Liberty and the Connecticut Sun. The Las Vegas Aces and the Dallas Wings.
We begin the proceedings in Brooklyn, where the Liberty will be hosting their first Eastern Conference Finals game since September 2015. Here's a look at the pair of WNBA player props I'm betting today.
WNBA Player Props Today
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+8.5 -115 | 162.5 -115 / -111 | +290 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-8.5 -105 | 162.5 -115 / -111 | -420 |
Courtney Vandersloot, Over 7.5 Assists (-113)
If the Liberty do reach their fifth WNBA Finals in team history — their first since 2002 — Courtney Vandersloot's floor generalship will serve as an underrated reason why.
The Gonzaga alum and five-time WNBA All-Star has been one of the best WNBA point guards this season.
Including the Libs' two-game sweep over the Washington Mystics, Vandersloot has gone over 7.5 assists in 9 of 13 games; Six of those games were at least 10-assist performances. And this isn't a case of Vandersloot only doing this in close games as opposed to Liberty blowout victories — of those nine games of eight or more assists, the 2021 WNBA Champion, four were in games decided by double-figures. Is this prop blowout proof? Not fully, but we have enough to indicate it's not a dead-end if the Liberty go up 20 early.
The Liberty are 4-0 against the Sun this year, with both games at home being decided by at least 16 points, and both games in Connecticut by eight or fewer points. Vandersloot hit eight or more assists in three of four games, the lone one being a 31-point whooping on Sept. 1.
I think the Sun will be competitive enough for Vandersloot to log over 30 minutes.
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| Wings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+10.5 -114 | 174.5 -115 / -111 | +420 |
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-10.5 -106 | 174.5 -115 / -111 | -600 |
Arike Ogunbowale, Under 21.5 Points (-125)
I'm going to sound like a hater here, but I am not.
Arike Ogunbowale is great — I bet her to go over 2.5 3s in her last outing, which fell short in a 2-for-4 display from deep, where the Wings walloped the Atlanta Dream by nearly 30 points.
That isn't why I'm going under: I just question how competitive this series is going to be, and with the Aces favored by 10.5 in Game 1, Vegas would agree. Therefore, how many opportunities is Ogunbowale going to have to go over on points, especially in a series where she'll struggle to do so efficiently because the Aces are that good.
Ogunbowale has gone over 21.5 points just once in her last five games, and she hasn't done it once against the Aces.
In four outings against Vegas this season, Ogunbowale has finished with 12, 12, 14 and 21 points. In those games, she's shooting 33 percent from the field and 27.6 percent from three.
Maybe she hits an over or two in this series — she's made three All-Star teams in her five-year career after all — but I'll bet against it happening in Game 1.
