WNBA Playoffs Odds, Picks, Predictions: Best Bets From Saturday’s Game 2s, Including Liberty vs. Sky, Mercury vs. Aces (August 20)

What a start to the WNBA postseason.

Between the late-game push by the Liberty to steal Game 1 and the back-and-forth extravaganza in Seattle the next night, we were treated to two truly elite games.

Plus, with statement wins from Las Vegas and Connecticut, we had two juggernauts establishing their presence, as they each look to topple the reigning champs in Chicago.

We also got off to a good betting start.

We pulled out the Game 1 win in Seattle (hope you played the moneyline like I suggested, and not the spread!), and with New York stealing Game 1, the Liberty-in-3 play given out earlier this week is looking in great shape to cash, and will be a great hedge spot regardless.

The weekend now brings the next round of action, with Chicago-New York and Las Vegas-Phoenix both in play Saturday.

One favorite faces a must-win scenario, while one team which arguably doesn't belong here (thanks Curt Miller) is taking potentially one final swing in what has been a season from hell.

Let's get to it.

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WNBA Odds & Picks

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Injuries/News

Knock on wood, but all clear for both teams as of now.

Is Playoff Sabrina a THING?

Anyone who has followed the trajectory of Sabrina Ionescu shouldn't be shocked this narrative is arriving early in her career.

She has long been a big branch in the Mamba Mentality Tree – a player who seems to thrive in big moments, as well as whenever the opposition decides to poke the bear (which is just oh so dumb when dealing with her).

In the Liberty's surprising Game 1 win, Ionescu went for 22 points – which tied for a game-high – with nearly half those points (10) in the come-from-behind fourth quarter. Again, not shocking.

Then, in her post-game comments, she took the moment to imply the Liberty had ideas of not even letting this series go back to New York, eyeing a second straight upset win in Chicago.

Now, I do not see Game 2 going that way, but with a pretty well-set spread and total, there's a reason I'm leading this preview talking about a player I'm eyeing in the player prop market.

FanDuel had these out as early as Thursday evening, so hopefully you were able to tail a few early plays in the Action Network app.

I love having these player props available. They appeared late in the regular season and seem to be spreading, as DraftKings has now added them for the postseason. The shop now joins FanDuel and BetRivers, the latter of which was the first to consistently offer them.

I have been logging lots of these plays in the app. But because they are typically released late, I haven't been able to suggest many here.

However, with the day off Friday, books have released them early, so I'm going to make a few of them plays here.

Back to Sabrina: I do believe she is a future Hall of Famer in the making. However, I am somewhat surprisingly suggesting a fade in Game 2.

Her point total is 20.5 at DraftKings, and her assist total is 7.5 at FanDuel. I am taking both unders.

Regarding the points, Sabrina barely cleared that line in Game 1, and she did so only thanks to some lights-out play in the fourth.

Now, we just finished talking about how that maybe shouldn't be a surprise. But if Game 2 isn't as tight, she may not have to get into Mamba Mode.

Ionescu averaged just 17.4 points per game – a far cry from this number. She also scored her 22 points in the opener on just 12 field goal attempts; an impressive ratio, but one that implies she may not get there again if the Liberty shot distribution looks similar.

So, if she's not scoring, shouldn't she be passing?

I also like the under on assists because there are simply more options for creation with the Liberty back to full health.

If this were hockey assists, sure, I might like the over, but with the Sky potentially blitzing Ionescu, it will likely be the pass before the assist that Sabrina is often making.

Also, Calvin Wetzel of Her Hoops Stats came across a great nugget on Sabrina's assists, noting she was a perfect 10/10 to the under on her assist prop when Betnijah Laney was in the lineup this season.

Laney is nearly back to full strength, so I quite like this play (outside of just the betting side of it, Ionescu's assists per 100 drop from 10.4 to 8.1 with Laney on the court, per PBP stats).

I also like two plays on Chicago, but they're leans: Candace Parker under 9.5 rebounds, and Courtney Vandersloot over 7.5 assists.

Parker cleared this number in Game 1, but against the Liberty in recent years she has been well below that number more often than not.

As for Sloot, she surpassed that total with ease in Game 1, and in a game script where I see Chicago coming out strong and making an effort to finish, Sloot will to be essential.

She has owned New York in recent seasons – 9.9 assists per game since the start of 2020 – and starters get extra minutes in the postseason.

Picks: Sabrina under 20.5 points and 7.5 assists (would play under 19.5 for plus money; need 7.5 around -120 or so)

Lean: Candace under 9.5 rebounds and Vandersloot over 7.5 assists (both need to be around -120 or better)

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Injuries/News

The hits keep coming for the Mercury, who have now seemingly lost beloved (and essential) cog Shey Peddy in addition to their Big Three (Brittney Griner, Diana Taurasi and Skylar Diggins-Smith), who are all already sidelined.

Only Taurasi has any chance of playing in this series, but she and Peddy don't have updates out just yet, and both appear unlikely to play.

On the flip side, the Aces join the Sky and Liberty in the Clean Health Club.

Get the Brooms Out

For nearly three quarters, the Phoenix Mercury – down the three most prominent faces of their franchise – battled admirably with the powerhouse Las Vegas Aces, trailing by just five points with 12 minutes to go.

Then Peddy – who was having an off shooting night but brings plenty to the table beyond just her scoring – went down with a non-contact injury – and that was about the knockout punch.

The Aces went on a 30-19 run down the stretch to pull away for a comfortable, 16-point victory (cheers to those of you who snagged that opening line -15.5; that's why you strike early!).

Game 2 honestly feels like it might be over before it starts.

A pesky Mercury defense that managed to create enough chaos to hold the Aces at bay for long stretches in Game 1, gave up a hefty 28 points in the fourth. And if Peddy is indeed out, that's a key loss on that end.

That being said, -17 is a BIG number.

In fact, only one spread this season was bigger, when the Aces took on the Fever on July 30 of this season. And Saturday's line continues ticking up.

If it gets to -17.5, it will be tied for the largest spread since 2020! And this is a playoff game!

It's easily the biggest spread in a WNBA postseason game; and as such, is terrifying to lay that many points even against a Mercury side as decimated as they are.

However, DraftKings still has a reasonable first half number out there at Las Vegas -9.

This play failed in Game 1, but as noted above, it feels like the wind is officially out of the sails. The Aces are just eons more talented than the Mercury at this point, and they have been elite in the first half all season; A'ja Wilson won't be going 1-for-8 from the field in the first half again.

I'm also fond of a player prop available at FanDuel here, taking yet another under on a star player, this time with Kelsey Plum's assists.

The number is 5.5 and isn't all that expensive yet. Couple that with just a 4-assist effort in Game 1, and the very distinct possibility of a blowout in which Plum barely plays the fourth, and we have a solid bet.

Pick: LVA-9 First Half (would play to -9.5 -115)
Pick: Plum under 5.5 assists (would play to -140)

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