Welcome to Friday in the WNBA Playoffs! As we enter the weekend, a lot is on the line for the teams remaining. First up at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN 2, the Minnesota Lynx take their series to Connecticut as the Sun play host and look to protect home court with hopes to get the job done while at Mohegan Sun Arena. With the series tied 1-1, the Lynx have other plans in store as they seek to steal at least one (or both) games on the road, but will they be able to deflate the Connecticut Sun defense?
Afterwards, the defending champs, the Las Vegas Aces, find themselves with their backs against the wall in a 0-2 hole as they turn their series back home in Nevada to try and salvage their season against the New York Liberty. It all goes down at 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN 2 with the Liberty looking for sweet revenge on their hopeful road back to the WNBA Finals.
So much in store and so much action that you surely don't want to miss as our experts provide their picks and best bets for the Game 3 doubleheader ahead for Friday night. Continue below for our WNBA best bets for Friday, October 4.
WNBA Playoffs: Semifinals Best Bets for Friday, October 4
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 P.M. | |
| 7:30 P.M. | |
| 7:30 P.M. | |
| 7:30 P.M. | |
| 7:30 P.M. | |
  | 9:30 P.M. | |
| 9:30 P.M. | |
| 9:30 P.M. | |
| 9:30 P.M. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our WNBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Bryan Fonseca's Spread Pick for Lynx vs. Sun
I think the Sun are winning this series, so I almost have to think they're taking a Game 3 after splitting on the road.
I get why the line is the line here, but the Sun have shot 50 percent, 26 percent, 40 percent and 25 percent from three in the playoffs. Now at home, if we get the hot shooting as we have twice, plus their reliably stifling defense, then they'll cover. The Lynx shot 42 percent from deep and didn't get "the game" from Napheesa Collier, who had nine points and shot 3 for 14.
But the Lynx did get immense production from their role players, who shot 25-for-48 from the field, 7-of-15 from three and scored 68 of the teams 77 points. The Sun produced, but shot 36 percent from the field and 25 percent from three, so this is betting on shooting progression and a slight regression from the Lynx efficiency.
Pick: Sun -1.5
| | | | | | | | |
Joe Dellera's Player Prop Bet for Lynx vs. Sun
By Joe Dellera
Phee has struggled these first two games against the Sun going right up against Alyssa Thomas; however, she's gotten plenty of volume through two games taking 16 and 14 shots.
One notable thing is at the half of Game 2, Cheryl Reeve mentioned wanting Phee to get more shots within the offense. She took the same amount in the 2H and the 1H (7); however, much of that is because Courtney Williams ran scorching hot.
Phee averaged 21.1 points this season and is the best scoring threat on either team, and I'll grab her to record at least 20 points and will also play Top Scorer (+160).
Pick: Napheesa Collier (Lynx) 20+ Points (-120 FD) and Top Point Scorer (+160 FD)
| | | | | | | | |
Bryan Fonseca's Player Prop Pick for Lynx vs. Sun
I know Napheesa Collier might be due, but honestly, not for this game — at least that's my read on it.
It's a tough match-up for her because of the defensive versatility she has to see in Connecticut. I think the Sun win this game, and part of the formula — you would think — is to continue stifling Collier, which they've done well at this series, particularly last game, limiting her to a 3-for-14 shooting display.
Collier has gone under in both games, hasn't broken 20 points, has shot 30 percent from the field and 16 percent from deep, and despite being aided by 7-of-7 free throw makes, the scoring hasn't been there. I think we get one more under before she potentially pops, if it's meant to be at all this series.
Pick: Napheesa Collier Under 20.5 Points
| | | | | | | | |
Andrew O'Connor Watts' First Half Bet for Lynx vs. Sun
The Sun check a few boxes in this spot, coming off a blowout loss to the Lynx. My model shows value on the Sun and the spot agrees. They're the type of team that doesn't take kindly to losing. Since Alyssa Thomas was drafted by the Sun in 2014, Connecticut is 7-3 off a loss in the postseason, according to BetLabs. Another trend the Sun fit is one that can be applied to WNBA teams in general. Playoff home favorites that lost the previous game, are 33-19-2 since 2015, which pulls in a 21 percent ROI.
Both of those trends are for the full game, but I like the first half angle better for a few reasons. First, the Sun are just a better first-half team at home. They have the best Net Rating in the first half at +14.9 thanks to their first-half defense, which locks in more at home. It's by far the stingiest in the league, allowing just 86.6 points per 100 possessions. For reference, the second-best home defense in the first half is the Lynx at 93.1–almost seven points worse.
I also think Sun head coach, Stephanie White, has an adjustment to make to take advantage of the rebounding edge Connecticut has over Minnesota. The Sun ranked third in Offensive Rebound Percentage (30.8) in the regular season, while the Lynx ranked second-to-last in Defensive Rebound Percentage (68.2), but the Minnesota outrebounded Connecticut 35-32 with both teams pulling down 11 offensive boards. I'll the Sun in the first half down to -1.5.
Pick: Sun 1H -1
| | | | | | | | |
Bryan Fonseca's Player Prop Pick for Lynx vs. Sun
Alyssa Thomas has gone over this in all four playoff games. In fact, she's gotten 35 or more in each contest. Maybe I'm dumb for buying into this trap for a potential rock fight, but man, this might just be a bad line.
Her PRA in playoff games are as follows: 35, 37, 36, 35 in that order.
She's shooting 52 percent from the field and finally got over a free throw in a playoff game last time out. She'll be aggressive in a Game 3 that will provide a lot of tilt, and one that the Sun should probably win.
Pick: Alyssa Thomas over 32.5 PRA
| | | | | | | | |
Joe Dellera's Player Prop Target for Liberty vs. Aces
By Joe Dellera
Sabrina was absolute nails down the stretch in Game 2 and even though she hooked us on the 5.5 assists had a great game.
She has dominated this matchup this season and has exceeded this 24.5 PA line in 4/5 against the Aces. Now, with the Aces reeling a bit defensively, this is a good opportunity for her to keep her foot on the gas. She has exceeded this mark in 60% of games this season including 3/4 this postseason.
Sabrina has stepped up her game and we’ll bet on that to continue.
Pick: Sabrina Ionescu Over 24.5 PA
| | | | | | | | |
Braxton Reynold's Player Prop for Liberty vs. Aces
Alysha Clark has taken Las Vegas' first shot in 5-of-19 starts (26.3%), and that rate is on the higher end across the league. With New York's elite paint defense trying to smother A'ja Wilson, the Aces need their 3-point shooters to connect badly.
Clark launched 7 triples in Game 2, including two in the first quarter. Given her first basket usage and projected scoring volume, getting +800 odds (11.1% implied probability) is a steal.
Pick: Alysha Clark First Aces Basket (+800)
| | | | | | | | |
Joe Dellera's First Half Bet for Liberty vs. Aces
By Joe Dellera
I grabbed the Aces at -1.5 a few days ago and logged it in the Action app but would play this up to -3.
The Aces are down 0-2 but now head home to Vegas and are in a win or go home scenario. A literal must win. I expect them to throw every possible adjustment out to start this game and come out with a maximum effort.
I don't have the data for the W, but in the NBA, there's a trend for teams going back home down 0-2. Home teams are 93-52-2 ATS 1H in Game 3 after losing the first two games of any playoff series. It aligns with this same thought process and the swing to Vegas should help them lock in.
I like the Liberty in this series, but l'd be shocked to see a sweep.
Pick: Aces -2.5 1H
| | | | | | | | |
Bryan Fonseca's First Half Bet on Liberty vs. Aces
This might be -2 by the time you read this, I'm fine with that. I'm probably OK with -2.5 also.
This is the spot for me. If you think the Aces are going to bounce back against the Liberty, you'll be tempted to take their spread for the full game. I don't mind that, but I'm more comfortable with first half responses. It's the sweet spot. The first quarter isn't long enough, and the full game is potentially too long.
It feels more and more like the Aces just won't three peat, and they're 0-5 against the Liberty this year — that goes for first halves too — but their champions, they're playing for their season, and I just don't think they're going out like some suckers.
Pick: Aces -1.5 1H
| | | | | | | | |
