The Las Vegas Aces (1-2) put on a show in their Game 3 win, and they must once again stave off elimination in Game 4 against the New York Liberty (2-1) on Sunday, October 6.
Keep reading for my WNBA same-game parlay for this Liberty vs Aces matchup at 3 p.m. ET on ABC.
WNBA Same-Game Parlay for Liberty vs Aces Game 4
- A'ja Wilson Under 23.5 Points (-118)
- New York Liberty +3.5 (-112)
Parlay Odds: +193 on FanDuel
A'ja Wilson Prop
Under 23.5 Points (-118)
Am I happy fading A’ja Wilson’s points? Of course not. The MVP can drop 30 even in the worst conditions possible. But sometimes uncomfortable bets must be made and this is one of those times.
New York’s elite interior defense remains a huge obstacle. It possesses the strength, length, quickness, and depth to throw constant curveballs at Wilson. The Liberty's defense also allowed the lowest offensive rebound rate and free throw attempt rate during the regular season, so she cannot count on easy layups and trips to the line as significant sources of points.
Meanwhile, Las Vegas has seemingly entered a flow state more frequently this series when she doesn’t force shots. An Aces offense with ball movement and varied shot attempt dispersal imposes a bigger challenge for New York specifically than “the A’ja Wilson show.” The veteran understands this, too.
Check out Wilson’s stats against the Liberty this year:
- 21 points on 9-of-16 shooting
- 24 points on 8-of-15 shooting
- 21 points on 9-of-16 shooting (G1)
- 24 points on 11-of-18 shooting (G2)
- 19 points on 8-of-14 shooting (G3)
Overall, she has averaged 21.8 points on 15.8 field-goal attempts per game versus New York, which is underwhelming compared to her season averages of 26.8 points on 19.7 field-goal attempts in non-Liberty games.
Spread
New York Liberty +3.5 (-112)
Game 3 was a classic bounce-back spot for Las Vegas-based on historical trends, and the Aces certainly delivered. They erupted for 95 points on 52/40/88 shooting splits while playing exceptional defense, especially against Sabrina Ionescu (who was held to four points).
It was a special performance, but does that really mean the Aces should be favored by 3.5 points in Game 4? The Liberty are still the best team in basketball with the personnel and depth to counter Las Vegas’ strengths. It’s difficult to imagine such a non-existent game from Ionescu again, and going 14-for-38 (36.8%) on 2-pointers is not likely to repeat this series.
Game 4 is basically a pick’em game to me, with perhaps a slight lean towards New York. Therefore, I’m thrilled to be receiving 3.5 points, which is not an insignificant amount.
