After evening the series at one game a piece, the New York Liberty travel to face the Minnesota Lynx in Game 3 of the WNBA Finals. Which team will take a commanding 2-1 lead?
Check out my WNBA same-game parlay for this Liberty vs Lynx Game 3 matchup.
WNBA Same-Game Parlay for Liberty vs Lynx Game 3
- 1st Quarter Over 40.5 Points (-114)
- Courtney Williams Over 18.5 Points + Assists (-118)
Parlay Odds: +196 on FanDuel
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
1st Quarter Over 40.5 Total Points (-114)
Lets’ run this back because the line once again makes no sense to me.
These teams led the W in first-quarter offensive rating during the regular season. Strong starts are their bread and butter.
Through two games, New York’s starting lineup is scorching hot to the tune of a 58.1 effective field goal percentage. The unit has produced 95 points across 89 possessions according to Synergy Sports, which translates to a superb 1.06 points per possession.
3-point shooting regression will eventually occur, but this lineup poses problems for Minnesota. They own passing chops and shooting at every position along with numerous self-creators. Their size advantage also lets them control the offensive glass and rack up put-backs or open triples. Overall, the Liberty should continue to achieve great shot quality when this lineup steps onto the court.
Meanwhile, surrounding Napheesa Collier with lethal 3-point shooting will always be a recipe for offensive success. It produces two mighty gravitational forces inside and outside the arc, thus pulling defenses apart potentially to its breaking point. So far this series, Minnesota’s starting lineup has scored 96 points in 93 possessions, or 1.03 points per possession.
Here is the first-quarter total for every matchup between the Liberty and Lynx this season:
- 48 points
- 50 points
- 42 points
- 47 points
- 51 points (Game 1)
- 52 points (Game 2)
It went over the current 40.5 line every time and utterly crushed it in 5-of-6 contests.
Courtney Williams Over 18.5 Points + Assists (-118)
If there’s a weak link in this Liberty defense, it’s perimeter isolation defense against ball handlers.
Courtney Williams looks like a blur on the court. She’s getting to her spots at will, shaking defenders, and penetrating the paint. As a result, the veteran is creating scoring opportunities for both herself and teammates.
I expect the Lynx to continue to play through her a ton, especially since New York is doing an excellent job of limiting Phee’s scoring volume.
Overall, Williams has recorded 28 and 23 PAs so far in this series.
