It’s Game 5 of the WNBA Finals. Either the Minnesota Lynx or New York Liberty will emerge from this contest as champions, but which one?
Keep reading for my WNBA same-game parlay for Lynx vs Liberty Game 5.
WNBA Same-Game Parlay for Lynx vs Liberty Game 5
- 1st Quarter Over 40.5 Points (-102)
- Leonie Fiebich Over 13.5 Points + Assists (-122)
- New York Liberty Moneyline (-250)
Parlay Odds: +290 on FanDuel
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
1st Quarter Over 40.5 Points (-102)
This line has been a profitable building block throughout the series and I'm going to it once again. Nothing has changed in terms of the analysis.
New York and Minnesota were the two most efficient offenses in the first quarter in the regular season largely because of their elite starting lineups.
The Liberty have excellent offensive hubs in Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu. Both stars can get their own buckets and/or create advantages for teammates. Jonquel Jones being a dynamic roller and above-the-break shooter provides the offense with additional flexibility. To top it off, Betnijah Laney-Hamilton and Leonie Fiebich complement the trio with 3-point shooting and connective passing.
It’s the most terrifying lineup in the W and it has produced 206 points across 201 possessions this series. That’s a dominant 1.02 points per possession. Minnesota has no answer for New York’s size and can’t stop the catch-and-shoot 3s from piling up. Look for the Liberty’s offense to get going early, barring a horrid shooting stretch.
Meanwhile, Minnesota’s starting lineup hasn't backed down. Their starters have scored 1.05 points per possession, which surpasses New York’s mark. The Liberty are implementing their game plan well and limiting Napheesa Collier’s volume, but Minnesota’s abundance of 3-point shooting is rallying a strong counterattack. Plus, Courtney Williams is slicing and dicing this defense.
Here are the first-quarter totals in their eight matchups this season:
- 48 points
- 50 points
- 42 points
- 47 points
- 51 points (Game 1)
- 52 points (Game 2)
- 46 points (Game 3)
- 46 points (Game 4)
Every game has gone over 41 points, and 7-of-8 contests went over 46 points. Overall, it would require uncharacteristically poor efficiency from both offenses for this under to hit.
Leonie Fiebich Over 13.5 Points + Assists (-122)
Although Fiebich is technically a WNBA rookie, she plays like a seasoned veteran due to her extensive international experience.
Off-ball shooting is Fiebich’s premier skill. According to Synergy Sports, she finished the regular season at 1.39 points per catch-and-shoot jumper (95th percentile). New York’s offensive rebounding advantage has led to plenty of second chance looks for perimeter shooters this series, and Fiebich should continue to benefit in Game 5.
In addition to triples and cuts, the German is making an impact with her savvy passing. She understands how to create off the catch and exploit a rotating defense. Fiebich has undeniably been a key playmaker against Minnesota.
Here are her points + assists stats this series:
- 21 (Game 1)
- 6 (Game 2)
- 15 (Game 3)
- 24 (Game 4)
New York Liberty Moneyline (-250)
Finally, I like the Liberty to prevail. They own a higher offensive ceiling and have more creators. When the defense tightens up down the stretch, New York has a better chance of generating quality shots.
The fact that the Liberty should win the possession battle is another key factor. More shots equals a bigger margin for error in terms of efficiency.
