The Connecticut Sun have dropped two straight games and now face elimination today. Can they extend the series with their backs against the wall? Or will the Minnesota Lynx earn a trip to the WNBA Finals.
Read below for my WNBA same game parlay for Lynx vs. Sun Game 4 on Sunday, October 6.
WNBA Same-Game Parlay for Lynx vs Sun Game 4
- Kayla McBride Under 13.5 Points (-113)
- Napheesa Collier Over 12.5 Rebounds + Assists (-138)
Parlay Odds: +209 on FanDuel
Kayla McBride Under 13.5 Points (-113)
I’m continuing to fade Kayla McBride as long as this line stays at 13.5 points.
Opposing guards averaged the fewest points per game against the Sun during the regular season, and it’s easy to see why. Connecticut’s defense surrendered the fewest 3-point attempts, the fewest catch-and-shoot attempts, and the second lowest points per jump shot. McBride rarely gets to the rim and instead relies on outside shooting to score, so it’s a horrible matchup for her.
Minnesota isn’t forcing the issue either. They are playing through Napheesa Collier and surprisingly getting to the rim without too much trouble – that’s definitely not McBride’s strength.
These are her stats versus Connecticut this year:
- 13 points on 5-of-11 shooting
- 13 points on 5-of-11 shooting
- 14 points on 3-of-11 shooting
- 12 points on 5-of-11 shooting (G1)
- 11 points on 4-of-10 shooting (G2)
- 13 points on 5-of-13 shooting (G3)
She’s scraped up against the line numerous times, yet has only gone over in 1-of-6 games. Look for McBride to finish around 11-13 points again in Game 4.
Napheesa Collier Over 12.5 Rebounds + Assists (-138)
The Sun have mostly blanketed Phee’s scoring compared to her typical production, and that’s no accident. Alyssa Thomas and company are formidable defenders who can disrupt game plans.
However, Phee is making her impact felt in a variety of ways. She’s fighting for extra possessions on the offensive glass, which has resulted in quality rebounding numbers when adding her defensive boards as well.
Meanwhile, Collier’s been a smart passer this series and has willingly sacrificed shots to hit teammates with cleaner looks. Her assist numbers are subsequently up compared to the regular season.
Through three games, Phee has posted 13, 17, and 14 rebounds + assists. I like her to clear the line again in Game 4 because Connecticut must limit her scoring in order to win.
