Offense seized the day in Game 1 between the Phoenix Mercury and Minnesota Lynx. These teams combined for 197 points and went 24-for-51 on 3s. Will Minnesota close out the series and eliminate Phoenix in Game 2?
Keep reading for my WNBA same-game parlay for Mercury vs. Lynx Game 2 on Wednesday, September 25. The game tips off at 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
WNBA Same-Game Parlay for Mercury vs Lynx
- Brittney Griner Under 14.5 Points (-115)
- Napheesa Collier 1+ Made 3s (-350)
Parlay Odds: +131 on FanDuel
Brittney Griner Under 14.5 Points (-115)
Across 27 games this year, excluding matchups against Minnesota, Brittney Griner averaged 18.6 points on 16.4 field goal plus free-throw attempts per game. Why is this line set at 14.5 then? Well, because the Lynx aren't kind to Griner.
In four matchups this year (including Game 1), those averages fell to 10.2 points on 15.2 attempts per game. Griner’s volume hasn’t been dramatically different, but Minnesota’s defense locks her down and forces tough shots.
That’s not surprising as the Lynx finished the regular season second in defensive rating. They allowed the fourth lowest field-goal percentage in the paint and the second lowest free-throw attempt rate. Pace of play is also typically sluggish during Lynx contests.
Minnesota excels at limiting bigs who lack range, so it should continue to hold Griner to modest scoring numbers. If Phoenix erupts offensively, jump shooters catching fire will likely be the cause.
Napheesa Collier 1+ Made 3s (-350)
Napheesa Collier exploded for 38 points on 11-for-19 shooting and led the Lynx to a crucial Game 1 victory. Collier also displayed her touch by going 3-for-5 on 3s.
Griner remains a strong rim protector, so Collier launching from deep will make the Mercury center hesitate about camping near the hoop. That should open up cleaner shots around the basket for Collier and other Lynx scorers.
Collier has followed this strategy throughout her matchups against Phoenix. Here are her 3-point stats against the Mercury during the 2024 season, with Griner active, including Game 1:
- 2-for-2
- 2-for-2
- 1-for-2
- 3-for-5 (Game 1)
Overall, I expect Collier to hover around three or four attempts per game in this series.
