The Connecticut Sun and Minnesota Lynx square off in a win-or-go-home Game 5. The winner will meet New York in the WNBA Finals, while the loser must pack their bags. It’s truly now or never for both franchises.
Keep reading for my WNBA same-game parlay for Sun vs. Lynx Game 5.
WNBA Same-Game Parlay for Sun vs Lynx Game 5
- Kayla McBride Under 13.5 Points (-132)
- Alyssa Thomas Over 22.5 Points + Assists (-125)
Parlay Odds: +201 on FanDuel
Kayla McBride Under 13.5 Points (-132)
Again?
This is my third time going to this well in this series, and I will continue to take it as long as online sportsbooks offer a decent price for 13.5 points — a line McBride has gone under in six-of-seven matchups this season.
This matchup remains terrible for Kayla McBride. During the regular season, Connecticut’s defense gave up the fewest 3-point attempts per game, the fewest catch-and-shoot attempts per game and the second-lowest points per jump shot. McBride is a shaky interior scorer who needs triples to explode offensively, so the red flags are abundant.
Overall, the Sun allowed the fewest points per game to guards. Rim threats and strong drivers have burned them this postseason, but that's not McBride's bread-and-butter.
Check out McBride’s stats versus Connecticut this year:
- 13 points on 5-of-11 shooting
- 13 points on 5-of-11 shooting
- 14 points on 3-of-11 shooting
- 12 points on 5-of-11 shooting (G1)
- 11 points on 4-of-10 shooting (G2)
- 13 points on 5-of-13 shooting (G3)
- 5 points on 2-of-6 shooting (G4)
Game 4 was McBride’s worst contest in terms of volume. Barring an exceptional efficiency night from 3, or incredible foul luck, it’s difficult to see her scoring 14+ points in Game 5.
Alyssa Thomas Over 22.5 Points + Assists (-125)
Across seven matchups against Minnesota this season, Alyssa Thomas has averaged 12.7 field goal attempts and 25.4 points plus assists (PAs) per game. In her 39 other contests, Thomas produced 8.2 field goal attempts and 18.4 PAs. The volume difference is striking.
These are Thomas’ PAs totals against the Lynx:
- 23
- 27
- 28
- 26 (G1)
- 25 (G2)
- 20 (G3)
- 29 (G4)
Thomas has cleared the 22.5 line in six-of-seven matchups. She’s an effective offensive hub and Connecticut should once again run its unit through her.
I suspect this line is this low because of the “Game 7 theory.” In the NBA, Game 7’s typically feature less scoring and a slower pace. Perhaps online sportsbooks are applying this principle to Tuesday’s win-or-go-home series finale.
However, I’m not buying it.
