The WNBA only has two games on the schedule for Wednesday, August 21, but it features a must-see matchup between the Minnesota Lynx and Las Vegas Aces.
Keep reading to see my same-game parlay for this exciting contest, which contains two legs and totals to +232 odds.
WNBA Same-Game Parlay for Lynx vs. Aces
- Kelsey Plum Under 17.5 Points (-120)
- Alanna Smith Under 16.5 Points+Rebounds (-104)
Parlay Odds: +232 on FanDuel
Kelsey Plum Under 17.5 Points (-120)
Kelsey Plum has cleared 18 points in 16-of-26 games this season, so she definitely has the shooting chops to be a high-volume scorer.
However, I'm fading her in this spot because Minnesota is an unfavorable matchup.
The Lynx field an elite transition defense. They hold opponents to the third-lowest transition frequency and third-fewest points per possession in transition. Minnesota slows the pace to a halt and stops outlet passes from transforming into easy shots.
Unfortunately for Plum, a massive 24.2% of her possessions come in transition. For context, that frequency ranks in the 93rd percentile across the WNBA.
Additionally, perimeter players typically struggle to gain traction versus Minnesota’s top-ranked defense. The Lynx surrender the second-fewest points per jump shot, as well as the second-fewest 3-point attempts per game from above the break.
Considering that 47.3% of Plum’s field goal attempts come from this area, the over is getting grimmer by the minute for her.
Overall, two teams currently rank top-four in transition and above-the-break defense: Minnesota and Seattle. Plum has played five games against those two squads. She went under 17.5 in four-of-five games and averaged a mere 13 points per game.
Guards produce the second-fewest points per game against the Lynx, too. Look for Plum to follow this trend and hit the under.
Alanna Smith Under 16.5 Points+Rebounds (-104)
Led by A’ja Wilson, the Aces are exceptional at controlling the defensive glass and subsequently give up the lowest offensive rebound rate to opponents.
Alanna Smith is second on the Lynx in offensive rebound rate, and only 70.5% of her total rebounds are defensive.
With Las Vegas slashing her put-back potential, it'll likely be tough for Smith to impose her will and rack up rebounds. It doesn’t help that the Aces are an excellent offensive team, thus further cutting rebounding chances.
Meanwhile, Las Vegas locks down the rim and easily allows the fewest restricted area shots per game. That’s where a huge chunk (44.8%) of Smith’s field goal attempts originate, so her scoring outlook is suspect here.
In summation, expect an underwhelming box score from Smith in this matchup.
