The 2024 Royal Rumble is in the books and Cody Rhodes and Bayley have decisions to make regarding what championship they each want to compete for at Wrestlemania XL. Ahead of that announcement, we took a look through the history of Royal Rumble winners to see how they fared in their Wrestlemania title matches. Below you can find that data as well as statistics on the likelihood of winning the Rumble for each entry number, and a few historical highlights from last night’s show.
In addition, many fans are already looking ahead to Wrestlemania XL and placing bets on the outcomes of the major matches. Be sure to take advantage of the best promo codes and bonuses when signing up with the top sportsbooks.
Our Fanatics Sportsbook promo code offers users a way to claim an exciting bonus while getting in on the Action!
How likely is the Royal Rumble winner to win the title at Wrestlemania?
Prior to this year’s event, there had been 37 Royal Rumble matches with a championship match at Wrestlemania on the line, with the tradition dating back to the 1993 event. If we look at all of those matches (represented in the above chart on the “All Rumbles” line), the winner of the Rumble has gone on to win their title match 54.05% of the time. Out of those 37 Royal Rumble matches, twice has the winner relinquished their title match opportunity, done by both “Stone Cold” Steve Austin in 1997 and Vince McMahon in 1999. When we take those two out of the equation (All W/OUT DNC) the numbers look even better for this year’s victors, with the challenger winning their Wrestlemania match 57.14% of the time.
If we narrow our focus to just the men’s Royal Rumbles, which represent 31 of the 37 matches in this data set, the numbers get a little interesting for Rhodes. The odds still favor him, with 51.61% of Rumble winners winning their payoff match and only 41.92% losing. But 6.45% of winners have gone on to not challenge for the title at Wrestlemania at all, despite earning the shot with the win. With rumors continuing to swirl that The Rock will take on his cousin Roman Reigns for the Undisputed WWE Universal Championship at Wrestlemania XL — even in the wake of Rhodes' win — the Son of a Son of a Plumber could be at risk of becoming the third person to not take their championship match opportunity, and the first to do it since McMahon in 1999.
With this year’s matchup being only the seventh women’s Royal Rumble, the stats are a little bit skewed by the small sample size when we try to evaluate Bayley’s chances. That being said, the numbers still favor her winning her fourth WWE Women’s Championship. The previous six winners of the match have gone 4-2 in their Wrestlemania title shots, leaving Bayley with a 66.67% chance to win the gold.
There are no odds available for Wrestlemania, but keep an eye out. You can use our BetMGM bonus code to get registered and be prepared for when Wrestlemania odds go live.
Likelihood of winning the Royal Rumble by entry number
Including last night’s contests, there have been 45 Royal Rumbles and 46 winners (thanks Bret Hart and Lex Luger) dating back to Jim Duggan’s win in the inaugural event in 1988. We took a look at what entry number each winner was to calculate which entrants have the best chance of winning the whole thing.
Unsurprisingly, the #30 entry spot has created the most winners, with five winners coming from that spot, giving wrestlers entering at that spot a 11.36% chance of winning. This is a fairly recent development however, with two of those five wins coming in the past three years. Behind the 30th spot, there is a three-way tie for second-best odds. Entry spots #1, #27 and #28 have each produced four winners, giving anybody entering at those spots a 9.09% chance to win the matchup. There are nine entry spots that have never produced a Royal Rumble winner, while another nine have produced a single winner each.
Two participants have also won the Royal Rumble entering after the #30 spot, Alberto Del Rio entered 38th in 2011 and Braun Strowman entered 41st in the Greatest Royal Rumble, the only two matches of the type to feature more than 30 participants.
Other Notable Statistics from the 2024 Royal Rumble
Rhodes' victory makes him just the 10th person in history to win multiple Royal Rumbles, and only the fourth to win them in back-to-back years. He is the first to accomplish that feat since “Stone Cold” Steve Austin won in 1997 and 1998.
The Charlotte, North Carolina, native has secured his spot in WrestleMania with his Royal Rumble victory. He will be able to join fellow members of the Tar Heel State when North Carolina sports betting goes live.
Rhodes spent 43 minutes and 21 seconds in this year’s Rumble match, moving him up to fourth all time in cumulative time spent in the Royal Rumble. He has spent 4:05:14 in Royal Rumble matches. Runner-up CM Punk spent 21 minutes and 45 seconds in this year’s matchup, moving him into the top 10. He sits at No. 10 all time, having spent 3:09:56 in the match over the years.
Bayley spent 1:03:03 in this year’s women’s Royal Rumble, a record for the women’s match. It also ranks third all-time and second all-time in conventional Rumble matches. Only Gunther in the 2023 match and Daniel Bryan in The Greatest Royal Rumble have lasted longer in a single match. She is the only one of those three to have won the match.
Kofi Kingston appeared in his 16th Royal Rumble matchup, good for second all-time. Only Kane has more appearances in the match with 20.
Nia Jax tied the record for most eliminations in a single women’s Royal Rumble. She eliminated eight competitors from this year’s event.
A less flattering highlight, Pat McAfee became just the ninth person to eliminate themselves from the Rumble. He is the first to do so since 2018.
All data was collected from WWE.com.
