We've reached the Divisional Championship round of the 2023 XFL season.
In the South Division championship, the Arlington Renegades take on the Houston Roughnecks on Saturday. In the North Division championship, the Seattle Sea Dragons square off against the D.C. Defenders on Sunday.
Action Network football analyst John LanFranca has betting picks for both XFL playoff games below.
Arlington Renegades vs. Houston Roughnecks
Kickoff: Saturday, 7 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN, ESPN+
| Renegades Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +220 |
| Roughnecks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -260 |
The momentum the Renegades had entering Week 10 came to a screeching halt. Arlington's starting quarterback, Luis Perez, played the entire game, but managed only 5.7 yards per attempt. While the game was meaningless for the standings of the South Division, a clear statement was made heading into the playoffs.
Houston dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides. Its defense held the Renegades' rushing attack to 2.7 yards per carry on 21 attempts. On the other side of the ball, the Roughnecks' ground game thrived to the tune of nearly 200 rushing yards on 6.3 yards per rush.
I admittedly was expecting Arlington to be in a good position to pull off the upset in the XFL semifinals, but after watching the Roughnecks defense last week, it is very difficult to imagine the Renegades offense generating more than 10-14 points without any semblance of a rushing attack.
Houston lived in the Arlington backfield, racking up seven tackles for losses and sacking Perez twice. Expect another dominant Roughnecks performance this week.
Pick: Roughnecks -6.5 | Play to -7 |
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Seattle Sea Dragons vs. D.C. Defenders
Kickoff: Sunday, 3 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN, ESPN+
| Sea Dragons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 48.5 -115o / -105u | +145 |
| Defenders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 48.5 -115o / -105u | -170 |
The handicap of this game is rather straightforward.
Week 5 was the last time either of these teams were held to under 24 points. The Defenders have boasted the best offense all season, scoring 28 or more points in eight straight games. Not only do they lead the league in rushing yards by an incredible margin (no team is within 400 rushing yards), the passing attack is the most explosive in the league as well, averaging 8.0 yards per attempt.
The Sea Dragons offense has been boom or bust, but they've played more consistently of late. Seattle has averaged 30.3 points per game over its last three contests. If turnovers become a problem once again, I don't believe it hinders the chances of this game going well over the total — the DC offense is almost certainly going to capitalize on any short field.
These two teams met on April 9. There were 67 points scored and nearly 700 total yards of offense.
Both offenses are firing on all cylinders heading into this North Division playoff matchup. I am still shocked this total didn't open in the 50s. This is one of my strongest XFL positions of the season.
Pick: Over 48.5 | Play to 50.5 |
