PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite NFL plays of the day and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.
Taysom Hill Rushing Yards
| Prop | Taysom Hill Under 25.5 Rushing Yards (-120) |
| Matchup | Saints vs. Buccaneers |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
Tonight’s Monday Night Football showdown features two NFC South foes. The Buccaneers and the Saints will square off in Tampa for their second matchup this season.
For my favorite playoff prop of the night, I’m focused on fading the Saints Taysom Hill’s rushing yards.
Hill has gone under this line in six of 11 games this season. He’s back playing his traditional utility role, which sees him on the field typically between 15 and 25 offensive snaps. He'll line up as a quarterback, running back, in-line tight-end or split out in the slot or out wide.
From a rushing perspective, the Saints have leaned on Hill when they’ve had the lead. The BYU product is 4-for-4 to the over on this line when the Saints win, and only 1-of-7 in losses.
Of course, it’s a bit backwards to analyze a prop that way, but I do like the Bucs defensively against Hill.
As inter-divisional rivals, the Bucs are well-versed on how the Saints deploy Hill. Tampa’s duo of speedy linebackers, Devin White and Lavonte David, have been able to neutralize Hill’s effectiveness with his legs.
In fact, last season, Hill started the game at quarterback against Tampa, and was only able to muster 29 yards on 10 designed rushing attempts. And earlier this season, in the Bucs' 20-10 win over the Saints, Hill only managed 14 yards on 3 carries.
Overall, the Bucs will be as prepared as any team to limit Hill on the ground. Even though this is a high-variance play, I see several outs for this under to hit in a tougher matchup. I have Hill projected at four rush attempts for fewer than 20 yards tonight.
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