Braves vs. Phillies Odds & Betting Predictions - October 11, 2023

Braves at Phillies

9:07 pm • TBS

Atlanta Braves

1-3

2 - 10

Philadelphia Phillies

3-1

pitcher		team	era	w-l
A.Nola			2.35	3-1
B.Elder			20.25	0-1

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Braves 1-3	PK-106	o9-115	+103
Phillies 3-1	PK-107	u9-105	-122

Wednesday 9:07 p.m.

October 11, 2023

Citizens Bank ParkPhiladelphia

ATL +103

1.46u

Under 9+110

0.5u

Bet to -103. Will look for live Under 9.5 and Over 6.5 too

PHI -130 (F5)

PHI -125

PHI -123

B.Elder o3.5 Ks+140

1.4u

I understand Bryce isn’t an exciting name for Braves fans at the first game of the series in Philly, but I’m gonna ask you to remember the good times. Bryce was on his job earlier in the season and had 6 Ks against this team in June. He got his lunch money stolen by them in September tho with no Ks. This line with these odds is enough for me to pull the trigger on guys who are way less capable and it’s because he understands the pressure of the moment. There’s no way he’s going to flop two times in a row against this team. Take advantage of this on FanDuel.

PHI -122

0.82u

It’s Red October don’t mind me

B.Elder u11.5 Outs+100

0.1u

B.Elder u3.5 Ks-145

0.15u

B.Elder u11.5 Outs+100

K.Schwarber o1.5 Total Bases+120

PHI -116

0.5u

Make this line right around -116. Only play at this price; rest of market closer to -125

Featured Insight
Phillies Right Handed Hitters have struck out 24% against LHP over the last two weeks -- sixth-highest in MLB. BravesRPs have a strikeout rate of 27% vs right-handed batters over the last two weeks -- second-highest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
The Phillies have scored 2.3 runs per game while trailing since last season -- third-highest in MLB (224 games). The Braves have allowed 2.3 runs per game while leading since last season -- tied for third-highest in MLB (256 games).

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The Braves are 33-24 (.579) after a loss this season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .486.

Marcell Ozuna is slugging .621 over the last 30 days -- 12th best in MLB-- 94th Percentile. Aaron Nola has allowed a SLG of .519 vs right-handed batters over the last 30 days -- ninth worst among qualified SPs-- 13th Percentile.

Bryce Elder has an average fastball velocity of just 89.8 MPH this season -- lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 94.0 -- second Percentile.

Bryce Elder has a strikeout rate of just 17% (128 SO in 732 PAs) this season -- 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% -- eighth Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Phillies are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Phillies are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Phillies are 36-45 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 5 of Phillies' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 36 of Phillies' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Phillies	75-87	39-42	36-45	64-66	10-21
Braves	75-87	35-46	40-41	60-71	15-16

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Phillies	78-76-8	36-40-5	42-36-3	56-68-6	22-7-2
Braves	58-94-10	25-53-3	33-41-7	45-77-9	13-17-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Phillies	1-3	54-27	41-40	82-48	12-19
Braves	0-2	46-35	43-38	76-55	13-18

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Oct 9th	@ATL	L 4-5	+1.5 W	O 8	ATL +130
Oct 7th	@ATL	W 3-0	-	-	-
Oct 5th	MIA	W 7-1	-	-	-
Oct 4th	MIA	W 4-1	-1.5 W	U 7.5	PHI -163
Oct 1st	@NYM	W 9-1	+1.5 W	O 8.5	PHI +100

Chris Sale
P
Chris Sale (back spasms) scratched Monday. Grant Holmes will start Game 2.
Out
Ronald Acuna
OF
Acuna is out for season with knee
Out for Season
Austin Riley
IF
Riley is out with hand
Out
Spencer Strider
P
Strider is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

Max Kepler
OF
Kepler is out with knee
Out
Jesus Luzardo
P
Luzardo is out with back
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RB.Elder, P	56	2.2	4	6
RM.Tonkin, P	15	0.2	1	0
LB. Hand, P	23	1	2	1
RA.Smith-Shawver, P	53	2.2	3	3
RD.Hernandez, P	19	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1R.Acuna, RF	2-5	1	0
2O.Albies, 2B	2-4	0	1
3A.Riley, 3B	2-5	0	0
4M.Olson, 1B	1-4	0	0
5M.Ozuna, DH	2-4	1	0
6T.d'Arnaud, C	0-4	0	0
7E.Rosario, LF	0-2	0	0
7K.Pillar, PH	0-0	0	0
7K.Pillar, LF	0-0	0	0
7F.Wall, PH	0-1	0	0
7F.Wall, LF	0-1	0	0
8O.Arcia, SS	1-4	0	1
9M.Harris, CF	0-4	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RA.Nola, P	92	5.2	9	2
LM.Strahm, P	11	0.1	0	0
RS.Dominguez, P	10	1	1	0
RO.Kerkering, P	22	1	0	0
RM.Lorenzen, P	18	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1K.Schwarber, DH	0-4	0	0	0
2T.Turner, SS	2-4	2	1	1
3B.Harper, 1B	2-5	2	2	4
4A.Bohm, 3B	1-3	1	0	0
5B.Stott, 2B	0-3	1	0	0
6J.Realmuto, C	1-3	0	0	2
7N.Castellanos, RF	2-4	2	2	2
8B.Marsh, LF	3-4	2	1	1
9J.Rojas, CF	0-4	0	0	0