Brewers vs. Pirates Odds & Betting Predictions - April 22, 2024

Brewers at Pirates

10:40 pm • BSWI

Milwaukee Brewers

8-9

2 - 4

Pittsburgh Pirates

10-8

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Jones			4.14	6-8
J.Ross			3.77	3-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Brewers 8-9	+1.5-175	o7.5+100	+127
Pirates 10-8	-1.5+145	u7.5-122	-151

Monday 10:40 p.m.

April 22, 2024

PNC ParkPittsburgh

PIT -1+105

2.1u

PIT -162 (F5)

1.62u

MIL +125

MIL +120

... divisional dog opening total >8 on 3 game win streak Overall: 489-490-0,50% (ROI:13%) Season:0-0-0, 0% (ROI: 0%)

J.Jones u6.5 Ks+114

0.92u

J.Ross u5.5 Ks-148

0.34u

Ballpark pal projects 4.3 Ks and +ev bet with devig odds of -207 giving value to this number

J.Jones o6.5 Ks-125

This kid has been electric - 32 Ks in 23 innings, over in 4/4 starts, and 14+ whiffs each start. Fastball and slider pitcher - 149 and 127 respectively in pitching+ (that’s really good). Brewers do have a below average K rate, but that’s because of their very low whiff rate. They rank 1st and called strike rate, and I’ll bank on Jones’ stuff winning out on strike 2. And they’ve been suvceptible vs power pitchers with a 35% K%.

PIT -135 (F5)

0.68u

Bet to -148

Featured Insight
Brewers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season -- fourth highest in MLB. Pirates have struck out 25% since the 2022 season -- second highest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Pirates RPs have a strikeout rate of 30% vs right-handed batters this season -- highest in MLB. Brewers right-handed hitters have struck out 28% against LHP this season -- third highest in MLB.

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The Brewers are 28-0 (1.000) when they've had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .793.

Willy Adames has struck out in 26% of PA's since the 2022 season -- 12th highest in MLB-- 11th Percentile. Aroldis Chapman has a strikeout rate of 36% since the 2022 season -- sixth highest among qualified RPs-- 97th Percentile.

Rhys Hoskins is slugging .618 on non-fastballs this season -- 12th best among hitters with at least 30 total PA's-- 92nd Percentile. Jared Jones has allowed a SLG of .477 non-fastballs this season -- 10th worst among qualified SPs-- 14th Percentile.

Joe Ross has allowed a slugging percentage of just .200 (3 Total Bases / 15 ABs) on inside fastballs this season -- tied for 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: .424 -- 90th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Pirates are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Pirates are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Pirates are 45-36 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Pirates' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 40 of Pirates' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Pirates	88-74	43-38	45-36	29-34	59-39
Brewers	87-75	44-37	43-38	43-48	43-26

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Pirates	77-81-4	40-38-3	37-43-1	31-30-2	46-50-2
Brewers	81-70-11	40-33-8	41-37-3	41-43-7	40-25-4

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Pirates	76-86	39-42	37-44	35-28	41-57
Brewers	93-69	47-34	46-35	54-37	38-31

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 21st	BOS	L 1-6	-1.5 L	U 8	BOS -155
Apr 20th	BOS	L 2-4	+1.5 L	U 7.5	BOS -120
Apr 19th	BOS	L 1-8	+1.5 L	O 8.5	BOS -115
Apr 17th	@NYM	L 1-9	+1.5 L	O 7.5	NYM +135
Apr 16th	@NYM	L 1-3	-1.5 L	U 7.5	NYM -107

Christian Yelich
OF
Yelich is questionable with back
Questionable

Brandon Woodruff
P
Woodruff is out with shoulder
Out
Blake Perkins
OF
Perkins is out with leg
Out
Robert Gasser
P
Gasser is out with elbow
Out

Johan Oviedo
P
Oviedo is questionable with elbow
Questionable
Spencer Horwitz
IF
Horwitz is questionable with wrist
Questionable

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Ross, P	79	5.1	4	1
LH.Milner, P	11	0.1	0	0
RT.Vieira, P	33	2.1	3	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1S.Frelick, LF	0-3	0	0	0
1J.Wiemer, PH	0-1	0	0	0
1J.Wiemer, LF	0-1	0	0	0
1O.Dunn, PH	0-1	0	0	0
2W.Contreras, C	1-3	1	0	0
3W.Adames, SS	0-3	0	0	0
4J.Bauers, 1B	1-3	0	0	0
4G.Sanchez, PH	0-0	0	0	0
4O.Miller, PR	0-0	0	0	0
4O.Miller, 1B	0-0	0	0	0
5R.Hoskins, DH	1-3	1	1	2
6B.Perkins, CF	0-3	0	0	0
7B.Turang, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
8J.Chourio, RF	1-4	0	0	0
9J.Ortiz, 3B	1-4	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Jones, P	91	6	7	1
RC.Holderman, P	15	1	1	0
LA.Chapman, P	16	0.1	1	1
RH.Stratton, P	5	0.2	0	0
RD.Bednar, P	20	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1A.McCutchen, DH	3-4	1	1	1
2B.Reynolds, RF	0-2	0	0	0
3K.Hayes, 3B	1-4	1	0	0
4R.Tellez, 1B	0-2	0	0	0
4C.Joe, PH	1-2	1	0	0
4C.Joe, 1B	1-2	1	0	0
5J.Suwinski, LF	0-3	1	0	0
6M.Taylor, CF	0-3	0	0	0
7O.Cruz, SS	3-4	0	0	2
8H.Davis, C	0-3	0	0	0
9A.Williams, 2B	1-4	0	0	0