Marlins vs. Phillies Odds & Betting Predictions - June 29, 2024

Marlins at Phillies

8:05 pm • NBCS-PH

Miami Marlins

1-0

3 - 2

Philadelphia Phillies

0-1

pitcher		team	era	w-l
A.Nola			3.57	14-8
R.Munoz			6.53	2-7

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Marlins 1-0	+1.5+105	o9-102	+210
Phillies 0-1	-1.5-125	u9-116	-259

Saturday 8:05 p.m.

June 29, 2024

Citizens Bank ParkPhiladelphia

PHI -1.5-124

G.Stubbs o0.5 SB+624

0.5u

Watch out for Speedball Stubbs

A.Nola o6.5 Ks+114

1.14u

Lock in Aaron “Father Figure” Nola

PHI -1.5-120

I take my religion extremely serious

MIA u3.5 Team Total-140

0.71u

The fish can’t hit water out of a barrel

A.Nola u6.5 Ks-132

1.32u

Under in 11/16. 26.9% CSW% his lowest of his career by a whopping 2.7%, and his swinging strike rate has plummeted to his lowest since 2016. The Marlins will swing at everything, usually making weak contact. Nola could easily go 7 IP, but I still don’t see enough 2 strike counts coming his way.

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Featured Insight
Phillies have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 4% of innings played this season -- second lowest in MLB. The Marlins have scored three or more runs in an inning just 30 times (4%) this season -- fourth lowest in MLB.

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The Phillies are 5-18 (.217) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .109.

Tim Anderson is batting just .174 on breaking pitches from RHP since last season -- seventh worst in MLB-- fifth Percentile. Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 32% of the time since last season -- second highest among qualified SPs-- 95th Percentile.

Jazz Chisholm is batting .371 with RISP this season -- fifth best in MLB-- 97th Percentile. Opponents are hitting .313 (21-for-67) against Aaron Nola with RISP this season -- tied for sixth worst among qualified SPs-- 10th Percentile.

Roddery Munoz has walked 18 of 154 batters (12%) this season -- tied for 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 7% -- fifth Percentile.

Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 34% of the time (99/287) when he's behind in the count this season -- 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 10% -- 97th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Phillies are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Phillies are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Phillies are 36-45 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 5 of Phillies' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 36 of Phillies' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Phillies	75-87	39-42	36-45	64-66	10-21
Marlins	77-85	35-46	42-39	2-15	75-70

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Phillies	78-76-8	36-40-5	42-36-3	56-68-6	22-7-2
Marlins	85-66-11	53-20-8	32-46-3	11-5-1	74-61-10

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Phillies	95-67	54-27	41-40	82-48	12-19
Marlins	62-100	30-51	32-49	4-13	58-87

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jun 28th	MIA	W 2-0	-1.5 W	U 8	PHI -225
Jun 27th	MIA	L 4-7	-1.5 L	O 8	MIA -299
Jun 26th	@DET	W 6-2	-1.5 W	U 9	PHI -166
Jun 25th	@DET	L 1-4	-1.5 L	U 7	DET -120
Jun 24th	@DET	W 8-1	-1.5 W	O 8	PHI -180

Sandy Alcantara
P
Alcantara is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Max Meyer
P
Meyer is out with shoulder
Out
Eury Perez
P
Perez is out with elbow
Out

Max Kepler
OF
Kepler is out with knee
Out
Jesus Luzardo
P
Luzardo is out with back
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RR.Munoz, P	79	4.2	4	2
LA.Nardi, P	16	1.1	2	0
LA.Puk, P	19	1	0	0
RC.Faucher, P	15	1	2	0
LT.Scott, P	12	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Chisholm, CF	1-4	0	0	1
2B.De La Cruz, RF	0-4	0	0	0
3J.Bell, 1B	1-4	0	0	0
3E.Rivera, 3B	0-0	0	0	0
4J.Sanchez, DH	0-4	0	0	0
5J.Burger, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
5J.Burger, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
6N.Gordon, LF	2-4	1	1	1
7T.Anderson, SS	1-4	0	0	0
8O.Lopez, 2B	2-4	1	0	0
9N.Fortes, C	1-3	1	0	1

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RA.Nola, P	100	6.2	9	3
LM.Strahm, P	7	0.1	1	0
LJ.Alvarado, P	13	1	1	0
RO.Kerkering, P	13	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1B.Stott, 2B	2-3	0	0	0
2T.Turner, SS	0-4	0	0	0
3A.Bohm, DH	0-2	0	0	1
4B.Marsh, LF	0-4	0	0	0
5N.Castellanos, RF	1-4	0	0	0
6K.Clemens, 1B	1-3	0	0	0
6C.Pache, PH	0-1	0	0	0
7E.Sosa, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
8G.Stubbs, C	1-2	1	1	1
8W.Merrifield, PH	0-1	0	0	0
8R.Marchan, C	0-1	0	0	0
9J.Rojas, CF	0-2	1	0	0