Mets vs. Reds Odds & Betting Predictions - April 7, 2024

Mets at Reds

5:40 pm • SNY

New York Mets

7-6

3 - 1

Cincinnati Reds

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
A.Abbott			3.72	10-10
S.Manaea			3.47	12-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Mets 7-6	-1.5+136	o8.5-110	-120
Reds 0-0	+1.5-162	u8.5-110	+100

Sunday 5:40 p.m.

April 07, 2024

Great American Ball ParkCincinnati

A.Abbott u6.5 Ks-150

Juicy, but this is a line that Abbott stayed under in 15/21 last season. Only 4 Ks on 6 whiffs in the opener after a muted spring (8 Ks in 8 IP). The Mets had a below avg K% vs lefties last season (22.8%), and are tracking the same way this year (with roughly the same lineup).

CIN -104

$52.00

CIN -102

1.02u

CIN -105

C.Encarnacion-Strand o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs-120

1.2u

A.Abbott u5.5 Ks+115

0.58u

Ballpark pal projects -121 odds and 4.23% EV

CIN -106

… MLB home favs off a win Overall: 288-154-0,65% (ROI:15%) Season:0-0-0, 0% (ROI: 0%)

NYM +100

0.5u

Bet to -102

Featured Insight
The Mets have scored first in 52% of their games since the 2022 season -- 10th highest in MLB. The Reds have allowed their opponents to score first in 55% of their games since the 2022 season -- sixth highest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Opponents have a hard-hit rate of just 37% against the Reds RPs since the 2022 season -- ninth best in MLB. Mets hitters have a hard-hit rate of just 39% since the 2022 season -- tied for ninth worst in MLB.

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Opening Pitch: Dabbundo's MLB Bets for Sunday
Anthony Dabbundo•
Apr 7, 2024 UTC

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The Reds are just 38-18 (.679) when they've had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .796.

Joey Wendle had an OPS of just .554 last season -- fourth worst among hitters with at least 241 total PA's-- first Percentile. Emilio Pagan allowed an OPS of just .553 (273 PAs) last season -- 15th best among qualified RPs-- 93rd Percentile.

Pete Alonso is slugging .490 on sliders since the 2022 season -- 12th best in MLB-- 89th Percentile. A.J. Minter has allowed a SLG of .431 on sliders since the 2022 season -- 13th worst among qualified RPs-- 12th Percentile.

Opponents had a groundball rate of just 20% (21/103) against Andrew Abbott's curve and slider in the 2023 season -- lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% -- 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 20% (33/163) against Sean Manaea on the first pitch of at-bats since last season -- tied for 8th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 30% -- 10th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Reds are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Reds are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Reds are 47-34 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 0 of Reds' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 35 of Reds' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Reds	87-75	40-41	47-34	33-37	54-38
Mets	86-76	44-37	42-39	52-45	33-30

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Reds	73-81-8	35-40-6	38-41-2	38-29-3	35-52-5
Mets	81-76-5	42-39	39-37-5	46-46-5	34-29

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Reds	77-85	39-42	38-43	36-34	41-51
Mets	89-73	46-35	43-38	60-37	28-35

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 6th	NYM	W 9-6	-1.5 W	O 9.5	CIN -125
Apr 5th	NYM	L 2-3	-1.5 L	U 8.5	NYM -135
Apr 3rd	@PHI	W 4-1	+1.5 W	U 7.5	CIN +158
Apr 2nd	@PHI	L 4-9	+1.5 L	O 8	PHI +120
Apr 1st	@PHI	W 6-3	+1.5 W	O 8	CIN +122

Paul Blackburn
P
Blackburn is out with hand
Out
Ronny Mauricio
IF
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
P
Scott is out with elbow
Out

Jeimer Candelario
IF
Candelario is out with toe
Out
Stuart Fairchild
OF
Fairchild is out with thumb
Out
Matt McLain
IF
McLain is out with shoulder
Out
Brandon Williamson
P
Williamson is out with elbow
Out
Graham Ashcraft
P
Ashcraft is out with elbow
Out
Andrew Abbott
P
Abbott is out with shoulder
Out
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
IF
Encarnacion-Strand is out with hand
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LS.Manaea, P	92	5	6	1
RJ.Lopez, P	20	1	2	0
LB.Raley, P	20	1	0	0
RA.Ottavino, P	12	1	2	0
RE.Diaz, P	12	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1B.Nimmo, LF	0-4	0	0	1
2F.Lindor, SS	2-5	2	1	1
3P.Alonso, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
4F.Alvarez, C	1-3	0	0	0
5B.Baty, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
6S.Marte, DH	2-3	1	0	0
7T.Taylor, RF	2-4	0	0	0
8J.McNeil, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
9H.Bader, CF	0-4	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LA.Abbott, P	95	5	4	2
RT.Antone, P	1	0	0	0
LB.Suter, P	36	3	0	0
RB.Farmer, P	11	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.India, DH	0-3	0	0
2S.Steer, LF	0-3	0	0
3C.Encarnacion-Strand, 1B	1-4	0	0
4J.Candelario, 3B	0-3	1	0
5S.Fairchild, RF	1-3	0	0
5W.Benson, PH	0-1	0	0
5W.Benson, RF	0-1	0	0
6E.De La Cruz, SS	0-2	0	0
7S.Espinal, 2B	0-2	0	1
7J.Fraley, PH	0-1	0	0
8L.Maile, C	0-2	0	0
9B.Thompson, CF	1-3	0	0
9N.Martini, PH	0-1	0	0