Mets vs. Yankees Odds & Betting Predictions - July 25, 2023

Mets at Yankees

11:05 pm • TBS

New York Mets

8-9

9 - 3

New York Yankees

8-9

pitcher		team	era	w-l
D.German			4.56	5-7
J.Verlander			3.31	7-3

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Mets 8-9	-1.5+133	o8.5-102	-115
Yankees 8-9	+1.5-164	u8.5-120	-105

Tuesday 11:05 p.m.

July 25, 2023

Yankee StadiumBronx

Under 8.5-116

1.16u

Over 4.5 (F5)-110

$55.00

Over 8.5+100

J.Verlander u6.5 Ks-140

Willing to lay some juice, because I do see this line as a full K too high (I have him at 5.5). He’s pitching well, but his K rate has plummeted this season - 20.6% is lowest since 2014, as is swinging strike rate of 9.8%. Under in 14/17 this season. Yanks offense has been bad, but they’ve been K’ing at a slightly below avg rate (22% vs righties over the L30 days). Coming off a positive series with the bats, and Verlander has been poor on the road as is (5.18 ERA).

NYY +125 (F5)

0.5u

Need +125

NYY +116

0.5u

Bet to +109. Tuesday

Over 8-115

0.5u

Bet to -125 or 8.5 (-106). Tuesday

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The Mets are just 3-12 (.200) after a loss as underdogs this season -- tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .415.

The Yankees are just 9-17 (.346) after a loss as underdogs since last season -- 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.

The Yankees are 46-1 (.979) when leading entering the 9th inning this season -- 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .951.

Anthony Rizzo is slugging just .262 on breaking pitches from RHP this season -- 13th worst in MLB-- ninth Percentile. Justin Verlander has allowed a SLG of just .304 on his breaking pitches this season -- 13th best among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP-- 88th Percentile.

DJ LeMahieu is slugging just .364 on fastballs since last season -- fourth worst in MLB-- third Percentile. Justin Verlander has allowed a SLG of just .342 on fastballs since last season -- 10th best among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP-- 93rd Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 7% (4/59) against Domingo German when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season -- lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 24% -- 100th Percentile.

Justin Verlander has allowed an OBP of just .247 (1,005 PA's) since last season -- best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: .308 -- 100th Percentile.

Justin Verlander has allowed an OBP of just .233 (476 PA's) vs left-handed batters since last season -- best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: .310 -- 100th Percentile.

Opponents had a line drive rate of just 18% (91/515) versus Chris Bassitt in 2022 -- lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% -- 100th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Yankees are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Yankees are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Yankees are 45-36 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Yankees' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 45 of Yankees' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Yankees	80-82	35-46	45-36	62-72	18-9
Mets	86-76	44-37	42-39	52-45	33-30

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Yankees	87-69-6	45-33-3	42-36-3	76-54-4	11-14-2
Mets	81-76-5	42-39	39-37-5	46-46-5	34-29

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Yankees	94-68	44-37	50-31	76-58	18-9
Mets	89-73	46-35	43-38	60-37	28-35

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 23rd	KC	W 8-5	-1.5 W	O 9	NYY -198
Jul 22nd	KC	W 5-2	-1.5 W	U 8	NYY -272
Jul 21st	KC	W 5-4	-1.5 L	O 8.5	NYY -202
Jul 19th	@LAA	L 3-7	-1.5 L	O 9	LAA -144
Jul 19th	@LAA	L 1-5	-1.5 L	U 9	LAA -110

Frankie Montas
P
Montas is out with back
Out
Sean Manaea
P
Manaea is out with oblique
Out
Nick Madrigal
IF
Madrigal is out with shoulder
Out
Ronny Mauricio
IF
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
P
Scott is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

Giancarlo Stanton
DH
Stanton is out with elbow
Out

Clarke Schmidt
P
Schmidt is questionable with back
Questionable

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Verlander, P	98	6	6	0
LB.Raley, P	14	0.1	0	2
RD.Leone, P	10	0.2	1	0
RG.Hartwig, P	14	0.1	0	1
RD.Robertson, P	7	0.2	0	0
RA.Ottavino, P	17	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1B.Nimmo, CF	1-4	2	0	0
2F.Lindor, SS	3-5	3	0	0
3J.McNeil, 2B	2-4	1	0	3
3J.McNeil, RF	2-4	1	0	3
4P.Alonso, 1B	3-4	2	2	5
5D.Vogelbach, DH	1-3	1	1	1
5M.Vientos, PH	1-1	0	0	0
5M.Vientos, DH	1-1	0	0	0
6F.Alvarez, C	0-5	0	0	0
6O.Narvaez, C	0-0	0	0	0
7B.Baty, 3B	0-5	0	0	0
8M.Canha, LF	0-4	0	0	0
9D.Stewart, RF	1-4	0	0	0
9D.Mendick, 2B	0-0	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RD.German, P	91	6	9	6
LN.Ramirez, P	29	2	2	0
RR.Marinaccio, P	30	0.1	1	2
RA. Abreu, P	11	0.2	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.Bauers, RF	0-5	0	0
2G.Torres, 2B	1-4	0	0
3G.Stanton, DH	0-2	0	1
4A.Rizzo, 1B	0-5	0	0
5D.LeMahieu, 3B	0-2	0	0
6H.Bader, CF	1-4	1	0
7B.McKinney, LF	1-2	0	0
7I.Kiner-Falefa, PH	1-1	1	0
7I.Kiner-Falefa, LF	1-1	1	0
8A.Volpe, SS	1-3	1	1
9K.Higashioka, C	0-2	0	0
9B.Rortvedt, PH	0-1	0	1
9B.Rortvedt, C	0-1	0	1