Phillies vs. Marlins Odds & Betting Predictions - July 7, 2023

Phillies at Marlins

10:40 pm • BSFL

Philadelphia Phillies

1-3

4 - 3

Miami Marlins

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
S.Alcantara			4.14	7-12
Z.Wheeler			3.61	13-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Phillies 1-3	-1.5+127	o7-120	-143
Marlins 0-0	+1.5-152	u7+100	+120

Friday 10:40 p.m.

July 07, 2023

loanDepot parkMiami

Over 7.5+104

Z.Wheeler u6.5 Ks+102

Projecting closer to -165

S.Alcantara u5.5 Ks+112

1.12u

A ton of familiarity with this lineup - over 220 PAs vs this lineup, with everyone except for Hall facing Sandy at least 13 times. Only Schwarber and Castellanos had K’ed at an above avg rate vs Sandy (however both have also hit Sandy very well). But overall the blended K rate of this lineup (assuming Sandy goes a full 3 times through the order) runs us at 4.9 Ks. I don’t love harping on just one data subset, but Sandy also doesn’t look like himself this season, staying under in 10/17 games. He was already lit up once by this lineup earlier this season - and the Phillies are running hot on the road (12 straight wins).

PHI -136

0.74u

Don’t be surprised when they’re 5 games back in a month

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The Phillies are 11-6 (.647) after a home loss this season -- 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .503.

Kyle Schwarber is batting just .157 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season -- sixth worst in MLB-- fourth Percentile. 100% of Sandy Alcantara fastballs are 95+ MPH this season -- highest among qualified SPs-- 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .513 (20-for-39) against Zack Wheeler on the first pitch of at-bats this season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .341 -- first Percentile.

Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (437/1,026) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% -- 100th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Marlins are 42-39 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Marlins' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 53 of Marlins' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Marlins	77-85	35-46	42-39	2-15	75-70
Phillies	75-87	39-42	36-45	64-66	10-21

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Marlins	85-66-11	53-20-8	32-46-3	11-5-1	74-61-10
Phillies	78-76-8	36-40-5	42-36-3	56-68-6	22-7-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Marlins	62-100	30-51	32-49	4-13	58-87
Phillies	95-67	54-27	41-40	82-48	12-19

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 6th	STL	L 0-3	-1.5 L	U 8	STL -130
Jul 5th	STL	W 10-9	-1.5 L	O 9	MIA -115
Jul 4th	STL	W 15-2	-1.5 W	O 8.5	MIA -178
Jul 3rd	STL	W 5-4	-1.5 L	O 8	MIA -145
Jul 2nd	@ATL	L 3-6	+1.5 L	O 8.5	ATL +180

Sandy Alcantara
P
Alcantara is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Max Meyer
P
Meyer is out with shoulder
Out
Eury Perez
P
Perez is out with elbow
Out

Max Kepler
OF
Kepler is out with knee
Out
Jesus Luzardo
P
Luzardo is out with back
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RZ.Wheeler, P	101	6	7	3
RJ.Hoffman, P	23	2	2	0
RC.Kimbrel, P	4	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1K.Schwarber, LF	1-5	0	0	0
2T.Turner, SS	1-4	0	0	0
3N.Castellanos, RF	1-4	0	0	0
4B.Harper, DH	0-4	0	0	0
5J.Realmuto, C	2-3	2	1	1
6B.Stott, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
7A.Bohm, 3B	1-4	1	0	1
7A.Bohm, 1B	1-4	1	0	1
8D.Hall, 1B	1-3	0	0	0
8J. Harrison, PH	0-1	0	0	0
8E.Sosa, 3B	0-0	0	0	0
9B.Marsh, CF	2-3	0	0	0
9C.Pache, PH	1-1	1	1	2
9C.Pache, CF	1-1	1	1	2

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RS.Alcantara, P	95	6.2	5	1
LT.Scott, P	14	1.1	2	0
LA.Puk, P	22	1	3	3

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1L.Arraez, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
2J.Soler, DH	1-4	0	0	0
3B.De La Cruz, LF	0-4	0	0	0
3G.Hampson, LF	0-0	0	0	0
4J.Sanchez, RF	0-4	0	0	0
5G.Cooper, 1B	2-4	1	1	1
6J. Segura, 3B	2-4	1	0	0
7J.Wendle, SS	2-4	1	0	0
8J.Stallings, C	1-3	0	0	1
8Y.Gurriel, PH	0-1	0	0	0
9D.Myers, CF	0-3	0	0	1