Red Sox vs. Orioles Odds & Betting Predictions - September 28, 2023

Red Sox at Orioles

10:35 pm • MASN

Boston Red Sox

9-7

0 - 2

Baltimore Orioles

8-9

pitcher		team	era	w-l
D.Kremer			4.12	13-5
C.Sale			4.30	6-5

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Red Sox 9-7	+1.5-198	o7.5+100	+100
Orioles 8-9	-1.5+175	u7.5-120	-120

Thursday 10:35 p.m.

September 28, 2023

Oriole Park at Camden YardsBaltimore

Over 7.5+100

1.2u

Both Kremer and Sale allow a decent amount of runs when their teams face off against each other. I like the even money here.

Over 7.5-110

1.1u

Over 7.5-112

Starting pitchers have bad track records against their opponents.

Featured Insight
Red Sox have struck out just 22% since last season -- tied for 10th-lowest in MLB. Orioles have a strikeout rate of just 22% since last season -- ninth-lowest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
The Orioles have answered-back in 34% of innings after an opponent scores since last season -- tied for sixth-highest in MLB. Red Sox have allowed a run 34% of the time after an opposing score since last season -- seventh-highest in MLB.

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Thursday MLB Props: 3 Pitching Lines Showing Value
Alex Hinton•
Sep 28, 2023 UTC

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The Red Sox are just 33-46 (.418) after a loss this season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .483.

Rafael Devers had an OPS of .672 with two strikes last season -- 11th best in MLB-- 92nd Percentile. Dean Kremer allowed an OPS of .597 (270 PAs) with two strikes last season -- 13th worst among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP-- ninth Percentile.

Anthony Santander is slugging .561 on breaking pitches this season -- 10th best in MLB-- 92nd Percentile. Chris Sale has thrown his slider 37% of the time this season -- 13th highest among starting pitchers with at least 62 total SL-- 91st Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of 49% (158/320) against Chris Sale with two-strikes this season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 40% -- 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .139 (5-for-36) against Chris Sale -- 6th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .232 -- 94th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 27% (138/507) against Dean Kremer this season -- tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% -- sixth Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Orioles are 46-35 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Orioles' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 40 of Orioles' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Orioles	87-75	41-40	46-35	61-57	25-16
Red Sox	75-87	32-49	43-38	30-49	44-37

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Orioles	85-63-14	40-32-9	45-31-5	60-45-13	22-18-1
Red Sox	79-75-8	37-40-4	42-35-4	37-40-2	41-34-6

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Orioles	91-71	44-37	47-34	68-50	22-19
Red Sox	81-81	38-43	43-38	42-37	38-43

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 27th	WSH	W 5-1	-1.5 W	U 7.5	BAL -250
Sep 26th	WSH	W 1-0	-1.5 L	U 7.5	BAL -250
Sep 24th	@CLE	W 5-1	-1.5 W	U 7	BAL -102
Sep 23rd	@CLE	W 2-1	-1.5 L	U 8	BAL -130
Sep 22nd	@CLE	L 8-9	-1.5 L	O 8	CLE +100

Rafael Devers
IF
Devers is questionable with shoulder
Questionable

Patrick Sandoval
P
Sandoval is out with elbow
Out
Kutter Crawford
P
Crawford is out with knee
Out
Brayan Bello
P
Bello is questionable with shoulder
Questionable
Masataka Yoshida
OF
Yoshida is out with shoulder
Out

Jorge Mateo
IF
Mateo is out with elbow
Out
Trevor Rogers
P
Rogers is out with knee
Out
Kyle Bradish
P
Bradish is out with elbow
Out
Tyler Wells
P
Wells is out with elbow
Out
Chayce McDermott
P
McDermott is questionable with back
Questionable

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LC.Sale, P	69	5	2	1
RJ.Winckowski, P	23	1.2	2	0
LB.Bernardino, P	7	0.1	1	0
RZ.Kelly, P	23	1	0	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1C.Rafaela, CF	0-4	0	0	0
2R.Devers, 3B	1-3	0	0	0
3M.Yoshida, DH	0-2	0	0	0
3A.Duvall, PH	0-2	0	0	0
3A.Duvall, DH	0-2	0	0	0
4A.Verdugo, RF	0-4	0	0	0
5T.Story, SS	1-4	0	0	0
6W.Abreu, LF	0-3	0	0	0
7E.Valdez, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
8B.Dalbec, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
9C.Wong, C	1-3	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K
RD.Kremer, P	88	5.1	8
LD.Hall, P	23	1.2	1
RY.Cano, P	12	0.2	1
LC.Perez, P	4	0.1	0
RT.Wells, P	9	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1A.Hays, LF	0-4	0	0	0
2A.Rutschman, DH	1-3	0	0	0
3A.Santander, RF	1-4	1	1	1
3C.Mullins, CF	0-0	0	0	0
4R.Mountcastle, 1B	0-1	0	0	0
4R.O'Hearn, PH	0-0	0	0	0
4R.O'Hearn, 1B	0-0	0	0	0
5A. Hicks, CF	0-3	0	0	0
5A. Hicks, RF	0-3	0	0	0
6G.Henderson, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
6G.Henderson, SS	0-3	0	0	0
7J.Westburg, 2B	0-2	0	0	0
7A.Frazier, PH	0-0	1	0	0
7A.Frazier, 2B	0-0	1	0	0
8J.McCann, C	0-3	0	0	0
9J.Mateo, SS	1-2	0	0	0
9H.Kjerstad, PH	1-1	0	0	1
9R.Urias, 3B	0-0	0	0	0