Reds vs. Mets Odds & Betting Predictions - September 15, 2023

Reds at Mets

11:10 pm • SNY

Cincinnati Reds

9-8

5 - 3

New York Mets

8-9

pitcher		team	era	w-l
D.Peterson			5.03	3-8
H.Greene			4.82	4-7

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Reds 9-8	-1.5+161	o8-105	-105
Mets 8-9	+1.5-192	u8-110	-115

Friday 11:10 p.m.

September 15, 2023

Citi FieldFlushing, Queens

CIN +100

0.5u

Bet to -104

Over 7.5-110

0.5u

Bet to -113

H. Greene u16.5 Outs-125

1.25u

Greene is under in 10/18 this season, incl 5/6 on 4 days rest. Mets have been plucky - 125 wRC+ over the L14 days vs righties, and 142 wRC+ vs righties at home over the L30 days. Nimmo, McNeil, Alonso and Lindor have had varying levels of success vs Greene (9/20 with 3 HR collectively).

CIN -106 (F5)

0.5u

Bet to -111

Featured Insight
Mets have struck out just 21% over the last two weeks -- eighth-lowest in MLB. Reds have a strikeout rate of just 22% over the last two weeks -- tied for eighth-lowest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Reds Left Handed Hitters have struck out 23% against RHP since last season -- 10th-highest in MLB. Mets have a strikeout rate of 25% vs left-handed batters since last season -- tied for fourth-highest in MLB.

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MLB NRFI Model Picks For Friday
Billy Ward•
Sep 15, 2023 UTC

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The Reds are just 22-9 (.710) when they've had 5 or more XBH this season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .794.

30% of Brandon Nimmo strikeouts are looking since last season -- 13th highest in MLB-- 89th Percentile. 33% of Sam Moll strikeouts are looking since last season -- 13th highest among qualified RPs-- 93rd Percentile.

Hunter Greene has struck out 35% (65/186) of left-handed batters he faced this season -- 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 22% -- 99th Percentile.

Hunter Greene has averaged 98.7 MPH on fastballs since last season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Mets are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Mets are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Mets are 42-39 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Mets' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 42 of Mets' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	86-76	44-37	42-39	52-45	33-30
Reds	87-75	40-41	47-34	33-37	54-38

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Mets	81-76-5	42-39	39-37-5	46-46-5	34-29
Reds	73-81-8	35-40-6	38-41-2	38-29-3	35-52-5

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	89-73	46-35	43-38	60-37	28-35
Reds	77-85	39-42	38-43	36-34	41-51

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 14th	ARI	W 11-1	+1.5 W	O 7	NYM -115
Sep 13th	ARI	W 7-1	+1.5 W	U 8	NYM +134
Sep 12th	ARI	W 7-4	+1.5 W	O 9.5	NYM -120
Sep 11th	ARI	L 3-4	-1.5 L	U 8.5	ARI -130
Sep 10th	@MIN	W 2-0	+1.5 W	U 9	NYM +150

Frankie Montas
P
Montas is out with back
Out
Sean Manaea
P
Manaea is out with oblique
Out
Nick Madrigal
IF
Madrigal is out with shoulder
Out
Ronny Mauricio
IF
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
P
Scott is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

Brandon Williamson
P
Williamson is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Julian Aguiar
P
Aguiar is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Rhett Lowder
P
Lowder is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RH.Greene, P	98	5.2	6	3
RL.Sims, P	16	0.1	0	0
RI.Gibaut, P	27	1.1	1	0
RA.Diaz, P	22	1.2	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.India, 2B	1-5	1	1	2
2N.Senzel, 3B	1-5	1	0	0
3S.Steer, 1B	1-3	1	1	2
4H.Renfroe, RF	1-4	0	0	0
5T.Stephenson, DH	1-4	0	0	0
6N.Marte, SS	3-4	1	0	0
7T.Friedl, LF	0-3	0	0	0
8H.Bader, CF	0-4	0	0	0
9L.Maile, C	0-3	1	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LD.Peterson, P	95	5.2	10	2
RG.Hartwig, P	34	1.2	3	2
RD.Smith, P	15	0.2	0	0
RP.Bickford, P	8	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1B.Nimmo, LF	1-3	0	0	0
2F.Lindor, SS	0-4	1	0	0
3D.Stewart, RF	2-4	1	0	0
4P.Alonso, 1B	1-4	1	1	3
5J.McNeil, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
6R.Mauricio, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
7R.Ortega, CF	0-2	0	0	0
8M.Vientos, DH	0-4	0	0	0
9O.Narvaez, C	0-3	0	0	0