Reds vs. Mets Odds & Betting Predictions - September 15, 2023

Reds at Mets

11:10 pm • SNY

Cincinnati Reds

15-13

5 - 3

New York Mets

19-9

pitcher		team	era	w-l
D.Peterson			5.03	3-8
H.Greene			4.82	4-7

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Reds 15-13	-1.5+161	o8-105	-105
Mets 19-9	+1.5-192	u8-110	-115

Friday 11:10 p.m.

September 15, 2023

Citi FieldFlushing, Queens

CIN +100

0.5u

Bet to -104

Over 7.5-110

0.5u

Bet to -113

H. Greene u16.5 Outs-125

1.25u

Greene is under in 10/18 this season, incl 5/6 on 4 days rest. Mets have been plucky - 125 wRC+ over the L14 days vs righties, and 142 wRC+ vs righties at home over the L30 days. Nimmo, McNeil, Alonso and Lindor have had varying levels of success vs Greene (9/20 with 3 HR collectively).

CIN -106 (F5)

0.5u

Bet to -111

Featured Insight
Mets have struck out just 21% over the last two weeks -- eighth-lowest in MLB. Reds have a strikeout rate of just 22% over the last two weeks -- tied for eighth-lowest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Reds Left Handed Hitters have struck out 23% against RHP since last season -- 10th-highest in MLB. Mets have a strikeout rate of 25% vs left-handed batters since last season -- tied for fourth-highest in MLB.

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MLB NRFI Model Picks For Friday
Billy Ward•
Sep 15, 2023 UTC

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The Reds are just 22-9 (.710) when they've had 5 or more XBH this season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .794.

30% of Brandon Nimmo strikeouts are looking since last season -- 13th highest in MLB-- 89th Percentile. 33% of Sam Moll strikeouts are looking since last season -- 13th highest among qualified RPs-- 93rd Percentile.

Hunter Greene has struck out 35% (65/186) of left-handed batters he faced this season -- 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 22% -- 99th Percentile.

Hunter Greene has averaged 98.7 MPH on fastballs since last season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Mets are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Mets are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Mets are 6-9 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Mets' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Mets' 13 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	14-14	8-5	6-9	9-12	5-2
Reds	16-12	7-5	9-7	7-5	9-6

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Mets	9-19	4-9	5-10	9-12	0-7
Reds	13-14-1	5-6-1	8-8	3-8-1	9-6

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	19-9	12-1	7-8	15-6	4-3
Reds	15-13	6-6	9-7	8-4	7-8

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 14th	ARI	W 11-1	+1.5 W	O 7	NYM -115
Sep 13th	ARI	W 7-1	+1.5 W	U 8	NYM +134
Sep 12th	ARI	W 7-4	+1.5 W	O 9.5	NYM -120
Sep 11th	ARI	L 3-4	-1.5 L	U 8.5	ARI -130
Sep 10th	@MIN	W 2-0	+1.5 W	U 9	NYM +150

Frankie Montas
SP
Montas is out with back
Out
Sean Manaea
SP
Manaea is out with oblique
Out
Paul Blackburn
SP
Blackburn is out with knee
Out
Jose Siri
CF
Siri is out with leg
Out
Nick Madrigal
3B
Madrigal is out with shoulder
Out
Ronny Mauricio
SS
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
SP
Scott is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

Tyler Stephenson
C
Stephenson is out with oblique
Out
Brandon Williamson
SP
Williamson is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Julian Aguiar
SP
Aguiar is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Rhett Lowder
SP
Lowder is out with elbow
Out
Carson Spiers
RP
Spiers is out with shoulder
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RH.Greene, P	98	5.2	6	3
RL.Sims, P	16	0.1	0	0
RI.Gibaut, P	27	1.1	1	0
RA.Diaz, P	22	1.2	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.India, 2B	1-5	1	1	2
2N.Senzel, 3B	1-5	1	0	0
3S.Steer, 1B	1-3	1	1	2
4H.Renfroe, RF	1-4	0	0	0
5T.Stephenson, DH	1-4	0	0	0
6N.Marte, SS	3-4	1	0	0
7T.Friedl, LF	0-3	0	0	0
8H.Bader, CF	0-4	0	0	0
9L.Maile, C	0-3	1	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LD.Peterson, P	95	5.2	10	2
RG.Hartwig, P	34	1.2	3	2
RD.Smith, P	15	0.2	0	0
RP.Bickford, P	8	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1B.Nimmo, LF	1-3	0	0	0
2F.Lindor, SS	0-4	1	0	0
3D.Stewart, RF	2-4	1	0	0
4P.Alonso, 1B	1-4	1	1	3
5J.McNeil, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
6R.Mauricio, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
7R.Ortega, CF	0-2	0	0	0
8M.Vientos, DH	0-4	0	0	0
9O.Narvaez, C	0-3	0	0	0