Twins vs. Tigers Odds & Betting Predictions - July 26, 2024

Twins at Tigers

10:40 pm • BSN

Minnesota Twins

0-0

9 - 3

Detroit Tigers

4-3

pitcher		team	era	w-l
K.Montero			4.76	6-6
P.Lopez			4.08	15-10

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Twins 0-0	-1.5-112	o7.5-115	-188
Tigers 4-3	+1.5-108	u7.5-105	+158

Friday 10:40 p.m.

July 26, 2024

Comerica ParkDetroit

B.Buxton o1.5 Total Bases-110

MIN -1.5-108

P.Lopez o18.5 Outs+150

MIN -185 (F5)

MIN -165

P.Lopez u6.5 Ks+116

0.5u

Projection lands at 6.39 and a +ev pick giving us value at this number

MIN -160

0.31u

Flat to -175

MIN -165 (F5)

0.3u

Updated Price Target: -195. Risk 1u flat to -180 or 0.5u to -195

MIN -165 (F5)

0.3u

Update: Bet to -195, reduce risk past -180

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Featured Insight
The Tigers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 37% of their games this month -- tied for fourth lowest in MLB. The Twins have scored first in just 35% of their games this month -- fourth lowest in MLB.

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The Twins are just 3-8 (.273) after a win as underdogs this season -- tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .418.

Mark Canha is batting just .190 on breaking pitches from RHP since last season -- tied for 12th worst in MLB-- 11th Percentile. Pablo Lopez has thrown his curveball 25% of the time since last season -- 15th highest among starting pitchers with at least 105 total CB-- 89th Percentile.

Riley Greene is slugging .540 on breaking pitches from RHP since last season -- ninth best among hitters with at least 394 total PA's-- 96th Percentile. Pablo Lopez has thrown his curveball 25% of the time since last season -- 15th highest among starting pitchers with at least 105 total CB-- 89th Percentile.

Pablo Lopez has walked 9 of 224 left-handed batters (4%) this season -- 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% -- 93rd Percentile.

Pablo Lopez has walked 5 of 180 batters (3%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season -- 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% -- 97th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Tigers are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Tigers are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Tigers are 48-33 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Tigers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 36 of Tigers' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Tigers	87-75	39-42	48-33	27-39	60-36
Twins	69-93	33-48	36-45	46-66	22-26

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Tigers	79-78-5	36-43-2	43-35-3	31-32-3	48-46-2
Twins	83-73-6	43-33-5	40-40-1	63-43-6	18-30

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Tigers	86-76	43-38	43-38	38-28	48-48
Twins	82-80	43-38	39-42	63-49	18-30

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 25th	@CLE	W 3-0	+1.5 W	U 7.5	DET +124
Jul 24th	@CLE	L 1-2	+1.5 W	U 7	CLE +120
Jul 23rd	@CLE	L 4-5	+1.5 W	O 8.5	CLE +111
Jul 22nd	@CLE	W 8-2	-1.5 W	O 7	DET -140
Jul 21st	@TOR	L 4-5	+1.5 W	O 8	TOR +142

Javier Baez
IF
Baez is out with back
Out
Sawyer Gipson-Long
P
Gipson-Long is out with groin
Out

Jose Miranda
IF
Jose Miranda (back) has been scratched Thursday.
Out
Trevor Larnach
OF
Larnach is out with hamstring
Out
Joe Ryan
P
Ryan is out with triceps
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RP.Lopez, P	97	7	7	2
RJ.Staumont, P	17	1	0	1
LC.Thielbar, P	16	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1W.Castro, 2B	1-5	1	0	2
2B.Buxton, CF	2-5	1	1	2
3T.Larnach, LF	1-3	1	1	1
3M.Margot, PH	0-2	0	0	0
3M.Margot, LF	0-2	0	0	0
4R.Lewis, 3B	1-5	0	0	0
5M.Kepler, RF	1-5	1	0	0
6C.Santana, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
7M.Wallner, DH	1-3	2	1	1
8B.Lee, SS	3-4	1	0	1
9C.Vazquez, C	3-4	2	1	2

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RK.Montero, P	96	5	5	5
LJ.Wentz, P	43	2.1	3	2
RW.Vest, P	35	1.2	1	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1W.Perez, RF	0-4	0	0	0
1A.Ibanez, PH	0-1	0	0	0
2J.Malloy, DH	0-5	0	0	0
3C.Keith, 2B	2-4	0	0	0
4M.Canha, LF	0-3	1	0	0
5M.Vierling, CF	1-3	0	0	0
6B.Madris, 1B	2-4	0	0	1
7C.Kelly, C	1-2	1	0	0
8G.Urshela, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
9J.Baez, SS	1-4	1	1	2