White Sox vs. Dodgers Odds & Betting Predictions - June 14, 2023

Omg juice. With that out of the way - I have this graded at around -250. Why? Gonsolin is under this line in each start this season (8; and opps only at 5 twice). 24 hits in 40.2 IP. Last season - under in 22/24 starts (79 H in 130.1 IP). CHW ranks 23rd in batting avg vs righties over the L2 weeks (.213), and as a team, they also rank 23rd in wRC vs the splitter and slider - Gonsolin’s go to pitches. 12/L15 non-opener righties have stayed under.

Freddie is over this line in 20/L31. Hitting .343, .943 OPS vs righties, and .356, .983 OPS at home. And this matchup vs Lynn aligns Freeman’s barrel% (82nd percentile) with Lynn’s (19th percentile). Lynn likes to work inside to lefties with his cutter, and Freeman is very solid hitter in the inside zone (xBA .400+). Lynn is getting lit up by lefties - 51/141, 12 homers and a 1.115 OPS. And he’s allowed the third hardest hit rate as a righty vs a lefty hitter (44.1%). Freeman lifetime is 1-9 off Lynn, but those games were 6+ seasons ago, and Lynn hasn’t looked like the same pitcher this season. And the White Sox bullpen is below average. 26th in slugging% allowed and 22nd in xFIP. Freeman has done a lot of damage off relievers this season - 9 of his 13 homers off relievers (1.123 OPS).