With the Rookie of the Year races calcifying in both the American League and National League, let's take a look at the updated odds.
All odds are as of September 14 and via DraftKings.
American League Rookie of the Year Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Randy Arozarena | -170 |
| Adolis Garcia | +300 |
| Wander Franco | +750 |
| Luis Garcia | +1200 |
| Ryan Mountcastle | +1800 |
| Andrew Vaughn | +3000 |
September 14 Rookie of the Year Update
Randy Arozarena has solidified his lead further in the last two weeks. His odds have shortened slightly from -165 to -170 and has slashed a solid .281/.385/.500 since our last update.
The 2020 postseason hero is hitting .274/.355/.464 this season with a 3.5 bWAR.
The favorite in the beginning of August, Adolis Garcia, improved his odds from +550 to +300 but is still a longshot to overtake Arozarena despite his comparable 3.4 bWAR. Garcia is slashing .245/.293/ .467 with 29 homers.
September 1 Rookie of the Year Update
Randy Arozarena has redeemed himself. He came into the season as a massive +350 favorite after a 2020 postseason in which he slashed .377/.442/.831 with 10 homers over 20 games.
His odds dropped to +500 by August 3 after he put up .261/.339/.438 season with a 2.6 bWAR.
Since our last update, Arozarena has hit .348/.427/.591 in a cosplay of his postseason exploits last season. As a result, he's now the favorite at -165, zooming up from his aforementioned +500 line.
In a corresponding development, previous +175 favorite Adolis Garcia has hit just .245/.306/.500 over that same time frame. His odds are now tied for second-best at +550.
Even Luis Garcia and Akil Baddoo were bigger favorites that Arozerena a mere three and a half weeks ago. Since then, Garcia has been respectable and has had a 2.28 ERA. But, Baddoo has struggled mightily, hitting just .196/.196/.283 since August 3.
Luis Garcia is still tied for the second-best favorite at +550 but Baddoo has dropped all the way to a +2500 underdog.
August 3 Rookie of the Year Update
Randy Arozarena had been the preseason favorite after a lights out 2020 postseason in which he slashed .377/.442/.831 with 10 homers over 20 games. He came into the season a +350 favorite as a result.
He's followed that up with a respectable .261/.339/.438 season and a 2.6 bWAR so far, but it's been nothing close to those magical 20 playoff games. As a result, his odds have dropped to +500.
Adolis Garcia (+175), Luis Garcia (+300), Akil Baddoo (+330) are all ahead of Arozarena in the AL ROY race now.
The Texas Rangers' Adolis Garcia is hitting .251/.294/.486 with a 2.5 bWAR and made the All-Star team.
The Houston Astros' Luis Garcia has thrown for a 3.49 ERA over 100.2 innings with 121 strikeouts so far this season.
Meanwhile, the Detroit Tigers' Akil Baddoo is hitting .268/.341/.478 with 10 homers over 305 plate appearances.
Second-best preseason favorite Wander Franco (+1000) was not promoted to the Big Leagues until June and is now a +9000 underdog.
Third-best preseason favorite Jarred Kelenic (+1000) has struggled with the Mariners and was briefly sent down to AAA in June after an 0-for-39 slump. Kelenic currently has a -1.1 bWAR. He now has 100/1 odds to win this award.
March 31 Rookie of the Year Update
There is more depth to the odds in the American League compared to the National. On the Junior Circuit, Randy Arozorena is heavily favored over soon-to-be teammate Wander Franco.
In total, there are 22 players at +2500 or lower. Arozarena’s early success, especially in last year’s postseason, gives him a leg up, but he’s the only position player set to start the season in a top-of-the-order impact role on this list, aside from Ryan Mountcastle, who is lower on the list because he has only played 35 games and is on the Orioles.
Former No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize and Blue Jays right-hander Nate Pearson are tied as the highest pitchers on the list. Mize showed off his flashes of potential last season, as did Pearson, who is going to start the 2021 campaign on the injured list due to a lower-body injury.
National League Rookie of the Year Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jonathan India | -1000 |
| Trevor Rogers | +650 |
| Patrick Wisdom | +1500 |
| Frank Schwindel | +4000 |
| Ian Anderson | +5000 |
September 14 Rookie of the Year Update
This race is over, folks. India has a 3.6 bWAR and is slashing .273/.379/.469.
Rogers was the favorite in August before he had to sit out a month due to a family emergency. He has had two starts since then but gave up six runs over 8.2 innings in those outings.
September 1 Rookie of the Year Update
Jonathan India has become the firm favorite to win the NL Rookie of the Year award after having been a +185 underdog as recently as August 3 due to Trevor Rogers' injury.
Since our last update, India has hit .245/.313/.520.
But, more importantly, Rogers had not pitched since our last update due to a family medical situation.
It also doesn't hurt that the Reds are within striking distance of a playoff spot after having been several games out in early August.
August 3 Rookie of the Year Update
The Miami Marlins' Trevor Rogers — who started the season as a +4000 underdog to win this award — has become far-and-away the favorite to win the National League Rookie of the Year. He has the sixth best ERA in the NL at 2.45 over 20 starts with a bWAR of 3.0.
Jonathan India, too, started the season with +4000 odds to win this award and is now one of the favorites, albeit in distant second at +185. He is hitting .277/.401/.433 with 10 homers and a bWAR of 1.9. His on-base percentage of 40.1% is fifth in MLB.
Preseason favorite Ke'Bryan Hayes of the Pittsburgh Pirates has seen his odds drop from +350 to +5000 over the course of the last few months. While expectations were high after his cameo last season, he's hit just .251/.324/.387 over 213 plate appearances.
Preseason second-best favorite Sixto Sanchez (+500) of the Marlins has missed the entire season due to injury and is no longer on the board.
March 31 Rookie of the Year Update
Unlike the AL, the NL has four players who have clear high-impact roles to start the season.
Ke’Bryan Hayes is probably the best athlete on the list and put up very strong numbers in a brief cameo at the end of last season. Whether the rest of the Pirates’ mediocre lineup holds him down will be a potential concern, but the talent is there.
Sixto Sánchez and Ian Anderson both thrived at the end of last season and will play major roles in the Marlins and Braves’ rotations, respetively in 2021, while Dylan Carlson is poised for an everyday role in the Cardinals’ outfield. Carlson has a fantastic minor-league track record, although he struggled in 2020.
Other players poised for starting roles from the get-go include Marlins second baseman Jazz Chisholm, Cubs starter Adbert Alzolay and Reds infielder (soon to be a second baseman) Jonathan India.
