2024 Home Run Derby Picks, Best Bets: Predictions for Derby Winner, Long Shots, More
Credit: Getty Images. Pictured: Marcell Ozuna (left), Pete Alonso (right). | 2024 Home Run Derby Picks – 2024 Home Run Derby Best Bets
- The Home Run Derby is annually one of baseball's best betting events, where Major League Baseball's top power hitters participate in a showdown before the All-Star Game.
- Previously, the seeding for the Home Run Derby was based on home runs hit before the All-Star break. Now, the seeding is determined by the number of homers hit in the opening round, with no weight placed on regular-season performance.
- The 2024 MLB Home Run Derby takes place Monday night at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN) from Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas.
2024 Home Run Derby Best Bets
| MLB Home Run Derby Best Bets | |
|---|---|
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Eight All-Star sluggers (present and former) face off as they gun for the crown of this year’s ultimate home run hitter in the 2024 Home Run Derby, and we're here with the latest betting odds and bets for Monday's event.
The eight hitters will compete in the opening round, with the top four moving on to the semifinals for one-on-one matchups. In the bonus round, each player will continue until he makes three outs, and one extra out can be earned if a player hits a home run 425 feet or longer.
There are a number of ways you can bet the Home Run Derby on Monday: outright winner, head-to-head matchups, distance of longest home runs, exit velocity, total home runs and much more. Action Network's MLB staff is all over this from a betting perspective — you can check out our 2024 Home Run Derby best bets and picks below.
For more Home Run Derby picks, including bets on the first round and more from Globe Life Field, check out Sean Zerillo's Home Run Derby Expert Predictions, Bets and Preview.
2024 Home Run Derby Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (Mets) | +320 |
| Marcell Ozuna (Braves) | +425 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals) | +425 |
| Gunnar Henderson (Orioles) | +450 |
| Adolis Garcia (Rangers) | +550 |
| Teoscar Hernandez (Dodgers) | +1100 |
| Jose Ramirez (Guardians) | +1400 |
| Alec Bohm (Phillies) | +1800 |
Outright Derby Winner Odds via DraftKings.
By Sean Treppedi:
I’m leaning on the over for total long balls hit on Monday.
Since MLB last changed the Home Run Derby format from the old 10 outs per round system, the event has mustered more than 271 home runs four out of eight times — all of which happened consecutively leading up to 2024.
With a retractable roof above, Globe Life Field is a climate-controlled park that aids the baseball's air travel. That's in addition to being 600 feet above sea level, which makes it one of the five-highest elevated parks in the bigs.
The latest rule changes may have confiscated the ability to take as many pitches as possible within the time window, but hitters should be more discerning with what they are given at a park that’s seen 116 home runs at the time of this writing — the fourth most across baseball.
Pick: Total Home Runs: Over 269.5 (-110; DraftKings)
By Mike Ianniello:
Marcell Ozuna’s 26 home runs at the break are the fourth most in baseball, and second in the Derby field behind only Gunnar Henderson (28). The Braves slugger has 262 career home runs and is on pace to set a new career high after hitting 40 home runs last year.
Ozuna has an absurd hitting profile and everything you look for in a home run hitter. One of the best pure hitters in baseball this year, Ozuna ranks in the top 2% of the league in xSLG, xwOBA, barrel rate and hard-hard rate.
Compared to the rest of the Derby participants, Ozuna has the highest barrel rate and second-highest average exit velocity, behind Henderson. His max exit velocity is also among the top in the competition, highlighting his potential to hit long home runs. He has been mashing the ball all season and enters the Derby in great form with three home runs in the last week. He should put on a show on Monday.
My only concern is at age 33, he is the oldest participant. He is also 225 pounds, and part of what makes him such a good power hitter is how hard he swings. I worry about Ozuna running out of gas in the later rounds.
Therefore, my favorite bet is for Ozuna to hit the most home runs in the first round at +400.
Pick: Most HRs in Round 1: Marcell Ozuna (+400; DraftKings)
By Doug Ziefel:
Bobby Witt Jr. enters this Home Run Derby as a trendy pick to win it all, and it's easy to see why. He's a statcast darling, ranking in the top 10% of all major league hitters in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
However, he lacks experience, which Pete Alonso has over every other bat in the field. Alonso will be seeking his third Home Run Derby title, aiming to tie Ken Griffey Jr.'s record of three Home Run Derby titles.
This experience is not only familiar with being in the event but his pitcher as well. Alonso will have Dave Jauss throwing to him again. Jauss was the man behind the L-screen from Alonso's first two titles.
Lastly, we can use the market to gauge the separation between the two. On DraftKings, Alonso's first-round total is 24.5, with juice to the over. Witt's total is set at 21.5, with juice to the over.
With a projected three-homer edge, we're getting a great price on Alonso to outhomer Witt in the first round.
Pick: Most Round 1 Home Runs: Pete Alonso over Bobby Witt Jr. (-125; DraftKings)
By Sean Zerillo:
I have a number of bets for the Home Run Derby, but my pick to win the whole thing is Bobby Witt Jr.
I gave him out at +800 (Caesars) early last week. I don't know if I was responsible for the line movement, but it did drop by the next morning. It's now down to +500, which is where I draw the line for this bet.
There's a lot to like about Witt — he leads this field in maximum exit velocity (Max EV), average home run distance and maximum home run distance. Witt rates second in EV50 — the average of the hardest-hit 50% of a player's batted balls — and third in adjusted exit velocity.
Witt also rates highly in new bat-tracking metrics, ranking 3rd in bat speed and 2nd in blasts.
Pick: Home Run Derby Winner: Bobby Witt Jr. (+500)
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