All-Star Game Odds & Moneyline Bet | NL vs AL MLB Betting Preview
| National League Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +170 | 7 -120o / +100u | +102 |
| American League Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 7 -120o / +100u | -122 |
The 2024 MLB All-Star Game will be held Tuesday night (8 p.m. ET on FOX) at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas, home of the defending World Series champions — the Texas Rangers.
The American League holds a 47-44-2 advantage in the Midsummer Classic after the National League snapped its nine-year losing streak with a come-from-behind 3-2 win at T-Mobile Park in Seattle last season.
There are several ways to bet on the All-Star Game, including the moneyline, over/under, run line, and prop markets — specifically, All-Star Game MVP. Let's look at the AL and NL rosters and handicap the 94th All-Star Game in MLB history using my player-level projections.
The Pitchers
Both teams will carry 12 pitchers — seven starting pitchers and five relievers — for Tuesday's contest. The distribution between starters and relievers reflects the trend of pitching usage and valuation in MLB — in 2021, both teams had eight starting pitchers and four relievers.
Since NL Cy Young frontrunner Chris Sale pitched on Sunday for the Braves, the Pirates' Paul Skenes (6-0, 1.90 ERA) will become the first rookie starting pitcher in the All-Star Game since 1995 (Hideo Nomo).
The Orioles' Corbin Burnes (9-4, 2.43 ERA) will start for the American League ahead of AL Cy Young favorite Tarik Skubal (10-3, 2.41 ERA).
I give the American League a slight pitching advantage — especially if they avoid using Tyler Anderson — but I don't see a substantial difference between these staffs.
Starting Lineups and Reserves
The American League's starting lineup has a reasonably substantial advantage over the National League lineup.
If the two teams played a full All-Star game with their starting lineups — while changing pitchers every inning — I would make the AL -148 favorites. In my model, the AL starters project for a 151 wRC+, compared to a 128 wRC+ for the NL starters. Additionally, the AL starters have a substantial baserunning and defensive advantage, worth more than 4% to that projection.
However, the NL has a superior reserve group (projected 128 vs. 124 wRC+), with comparable baserunning and defensive ratings between the two teams. If the reserve lineups played the entire game, I'd only make the AL reserves -107 favorites over the NL reserves, an 8% adjustment compared to the starting lineups.
During the season, the AL hitters have averaged a 141 wRC+ with a .368 xwOBA, compared to 139 and .362, respectively, for the NL hitters.
The AL pitching staff averages out to a 2.93 xERA, 3.10 xFIP, 21.2% K-BB%, and 105 Pitching+ figure, compared to a 3.15 xERA, 3.32 xFIP, 20.5% K-BB%, and 105 Pitching+ figure for NL pitchers.
Park Factor and Umpire
The roof will be closed at Globe Life Field on Tuesday.
Over the past three seasons, the stadium has a 102 Park Factor for run scoring — the ninth-highest in MLB. However, Globe Life Field has played as an extreme pitchers park in 2024 (85 Park Factor, 29th) compared to 2023 (112, 5th) or 2022 (104, 8th).
Sixteen-year veteran James Hoye is the home-plate umpire. He owns a career 280-256-28 record to the Under (52.2%), but his games, on average, show a 0.62 margin to the Over, and he has a hitter-friendly reputation, evidenced by reduced strikeout rates for pitchers when he's behind the dish.
National League vs. American League
Betting Pick & Prediction
I projected the American League as -133 favorites (57.1% implied) and would bet the AL up to -123 (55.1% implied) or better at a 2% edge compared to my projected line.
Since a four-year streak of high-scoring games during the height of the steroid era from 2002-2005, the All-Star game is 14-1-2 to the Under since 2006, with an average of 6.35 runs in those 17 contests. Pitching is better than ever in 2024, and these arms are seemingly impossible to hit on your first look against them when they're airing it out for one inning.
I projected the game for 7.47 runs and saw no value concerning the total at 7.5 juiced to the Under. However, if the total drops, I would consider betting Over 7 to -110.
Considering my preference for the AL starting lineup — compared to the projected coinflip between the reserve groups — I would consider backing the NL on the live run line if they fall behind early.
Pick: American League Moneyline (-115) at Parx (bet to -123)
