The 2024 MLB season is right around the corner and that means the futures market is heating up.
There are four bets in particular that I've found value in, including two team-related props (a win total and a divisional future), one awards future, and an obscure win streak prop centered around the worst team in baseball.
Here are my best MLB futures for the 2024 season.
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Kansas City Royals
Over 73.5 Wins
There are a ton of positives for a team that has struggled to find an identity over the past seven seasons.
Starting with the future, Bobby Witt Jr. has been signed to the biggest contract in franchise history, giving Kansas City a multi-position player that will challenge 30-30 every season.
The pitching staff is boosted by Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo, both able to produce efficient innings.
Offensively, there are position players that will progress at the plate. Vinny Pasquantino provides lineup protection for both Witt and Salvador Perez.
Davenport and ZIPS both call for win totals above 73.5, as this Royals team is one of the few squads to project upward in the worst division of Major League Baseball.
Cincinnati Reds
To Win NL Central (+340)
Ownership and management of the Cincinnati Reds did not expect the team to blossom as fast as it did in the 2023 season. While no major contributors were added to the team, the Reds made considerable moves in December with productive role players.
The rotation of Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft and Nick Lodolo are all expected to improve from their high-ERA and injury-plagued seasons. Infielder Matt McLain will return to a lineup after a stellar rookie season, only to be in the shadows of Elly De La Cruz.
Cincinnati won 82 games a season ago, a number Davenport and ZIPS expect the Reds to repeat. In a division with contenders that have plenty of questions, Reds management may be the biggest investors at the trade deadline for a division and playoff push.
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Corbin Carroll
NL MVP (+1800)
Not many players can keep up with the production or Ronald Acuña Jr., as the Braves outfielder totaled 41 home runs and 73 stolen bases in 2023.
In order to compete for the NL MVP, a player must have the toolset to post Acuña-like numbers. Corbin Carroll comes off a massive rookie season, leading the Diamondbacks to the World Series. The Seattle native has the highest raw power and speed combination from a scouting perspective, posting 25 home runs and over 50 stolen bags.
Carroll is the one player on the NL odds board who can compete with Acuña not only in speed and power, but in defensive WAR as well. With Shohei Ohtani unable to pitch in the 2025 season, a good time to bet a longshot MVP future in the National League is this season.
Look for Carroll's potential 30/60 season to challenge Acuña for MVP votes.
Oakland Athletics
Longest Winning Streak Over 4.5 Games (+125)
The final days of Oakland Athletics baseball are grim. Set to move to a new home in a few years, Las Vegas asked the organization to go back to the blueprint stage on building a new ballpark.
The payroll barely exceeds the number of expected wins, with $59 million for the 2024 payroll as oddsmakers expect 57 wins.
There are a number of guaranteed contracts to players in their 30s, as the rotation will depend on the arms of Ross Stripling, Alex Wood and Paul Blackburn. The lineup does have a number of contributors who will contend for 20 home runs, an item that may be needed for our season long prop bet.
Oddsmakers have set the Oakland longest winning streak at 4.5, juiced with the Under. This is the worst team in baseball that is expected to fetch +250 on a nightly basis with respect to the moneyline.
While there is no expectation the A’s can win a series, limiting win streaks to just four games may be a little short. The AL West is top-heavy with Seattle, Houston and Texas but teams that fail to contend end up on losing streaks come September. Each player for Oakland will be playing for a new contract with every pitch and every at bat.
Historically, betting on the Oakland Athletics to win at least five games has been profitable. Only once since the Moneyball season of 2002 has the organization failed to win at least five consecutive games.
While the 2024 version of Oakland will be a tough watch, this is a division that will carry a lot of teams with no postseason path as early as July. Take the plus-money on an organization that has failed to cash this prop just once this century.
