It's Aaron Judge's contract year, and it shows.
The Yankees slugger turned down a seven-year, $213.5 million extension over the offseason in order to bet on himself in free agency, the forum in which the majority of baseball's largest contracts have been signed.
His wager can be best described as prudent. The three-time All-Star — soon to be four-time — is on pace for 64 home runs and 130 RBIs and is MLB's leader in homers, slugging percentage, OPS and OPS+.
And, he's now the prohibitive favorite to win the AL MVP.
At DraftKings, Judge's odds are at +200, by far the shortest they've been all season. That implies Judge will win the award 33.3% of the time. Prospective bettors have a betting edge when they think Judge will win this award more than 33.3% of the time.
Meanwhile, it's Shohei Ohtani's odds that have tanked amid a 13-game losing streak for the Angels. Ohtani had been the favorite as recently as last week before dipping to his current price at +300.
Angels teammate Mike Trout — who was taken out of last night's game against the Red Sox with a groin problem — has seen his odds drop, too, amid the losing streak. It doesn't help that the nine-time All-Star has hit just 3-for-30 over the last two weeks.
The three-time MVP now has odds of +400 to take the trophy again this season.
AL MVP Odds
Odds are according to DraftKings as of Wednesday morning
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | +200 |
| Shohei Ohtani | +300 |
| Mike Trout | +400 |
| Jose Ramirez | +1100 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | +1800 |
| Byron Buxton | +2000 |
| Yordan Alvarez | +2000 |
| Rafael Devers | +2000 |
| Wander Franco | +4000 |
| Luis Robert | +4000 |
Judge is also the odds-on favorite to win the home run title. As of Wednesday morning, he has 22 dingers, five more than his second-best competition in Yordan Alvarez. Mookie Betts and Pete Alonso both have 16.
Judge's -125 odds in this market give him an implied probability of 55.5% to finish atop the home run leaderboard.
That gives the field implied odds of roughly +125. That market is unavailable at every major American sportsbook.
Alvarez has +650 odds to finish with the most homers while Betts (+750) and Alonso (+950) trail closely behind.
Trout, who has never topped MLB in home runs across his illustrious career, has the fifth-best odds at +1800. That's also despite a potential stay on the injured list in the coming days.
