Before breaking down the potential list of MVP candidates for 2023, let's talk about what matters and what does not matter to MVP voters.
Important
- Position: In the past two decades, two pure pitchers (Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander) have won MVP trophies (three in 33 years). Outfielders and corner infielders have won more than 75% of the time, including 14 of the 16 most recent recipients (second baseman Jose Altuve and DH/pitcher Shohei Ohtani are the only exceptions).
- OPS Ranking: Counts twice as much as a player's ranking in batting average, RBI, home runs, stolen bases or team winning percentage. Every (offensive) MVP winner since 2001 except for Ichiro Suzuki has had an OPS greater than .850.
- WAR:Twenty-four of the past 26 MVP winners (92%) ranked in the top three in WAR in their respective leagues. Seventeen winners (65%) finished as the league leader in WAR.
Irrelevant
- Making History: There have been four "40-40" seasons in MLB history, and 23 "30-30" seasons in MLB history. Just three of those 27 (11.1%) players (Jose Canseco in 1988, Jimmy Rollins in 2007, and Mookie Betts in 2018) won the MVP award. Those 27 players finished 9.7, on average, in MVP voting. Similarly, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. likely wouldn't have won the MVP last season, even if he had captured the Triple Crown.
- Making the Playoffs: Eleven of the past 46 MVP winners (24%) failed to make the postseason. Perhaps more importantly, none of the three finalists in either league made the postseason in 2022, the most dramatic shift in the history of MVP voting. While five of the six MVP finalists made the playoffs in 2023, it's become almost irrelevant to discussing which player is having the best season.
Inconclusive
- Teammates Competing for Votes: Since 2000, the closest teammate in MVP voting, relative to the actual MVP winners, ranked around 10th, on average. One pair of teammates finished one-two (Jeff Kent and Barry Bonds, 2001). Four additional pairs finished in the top three of the voting, including Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado in 2022. Four MVP winners finished with multiple teammates in the Top 10. Similarly, there are four instances where multiple teammates finished in the Top 10 without winning the award.
Here are my projected WAR leaders in each league for the upcoming season, alongside their listed odds at FanDuel:
American League
Ohtani is the obvious favorite, and toward the end of last season, I suspected he would be closer to even money for AL MVP heading into 2023.
Mike Trout closed between +110 and +130 during the height of his AL reign. Ohtani still received first-place votes for MVP last season, even though Aaron Judge posted the best individual season for a position player since Barry Bonds retired.
Assuming Ohtani stays healthy, someone else must post a historic offensive season to get into the conversation. If you want to fire a single bullet at an Ohtani MVP future (+225 at Superbook), I won't fault you; he is likely a once-in-a-lifetime type of talent and in the midst of his prime.
That's not how I bet baseball futures, though. I would prefer to structure a portfolio in each category at reduced risk for longer odds. A two or three-week IL stint is enough to derail any season-long player future.
Sorting by average production as a component of playing time, Trout, Yordan Alvarez, Julio Rodriguez, Jose Ramirez and Corey Seager are the only players who approach Judge in terms of average production. In terms of value, Seager is likely the best bet in the AL.
Considering any player expected to average below 0.2 WAR per 25 PA as a potential MVP candidate is difficult.
I bet Judge last year (0.25u at +2500) among a group of six AL hitters. At the time, he ranked third in my average WAR filter (0.24 per 25 PA); health was the only question.
I could make a similar case for Alvarez (0.25 WAR per 25 PA), who drastically underachieved last season (.427 wOBA,467 xwOBA) and may be unstoppable without the shift. I have multiple stat leader bets on Alvarez, and the MVP wager is the final piece of the puzzle. However, I only risked 0.75 units across all of his wagers, so if Alvarez does miss time, it has almost zero impact on my overall futures bottom line. And if he wins the Triple Crown, we stand to profit around 10 units.
No hitter has been harmed by the shift in recent years as much as Seager, whose long odds are far too enticing to pass up relative to his projection bucket.
I was more interested in Ramirez over the past couple of years at around +2500, as opposed to his current price (+1500).
And the odds for Rodriguez (+1000 at Superbook) are likely too short given his projections, but I firmly believe J-Rod is bound for multiple MVP awards throughout his career, and I'll bet him blindly every year in this price range.
I'll speculate on two more young stars — and potential Hall of Fame talents — to outplay their projections: Wander Franco and Adley Rutschman.
If you liked Franco at +2200 last season (as I did), you should bet him at double the price after an injury-shortened sophomore campaign. Franco has insanely good plate discipline for a player his age and an elite hit tool for a shortstop.
Rutschman posted a 5.3-win season in 113 games as a rookie and has an extremely high floor as one of the top defensive catchers in the game. His bat making such an immediate impact (133 wRC+, 49 extra-base hits) was the biggest surprise. MVP-type catchers don't come around often (Joe Mauer in 2009, Buster Posey in 2012), but Rutschman may be an exception.
MVP Bets
- AL: Yordan Alvarez (+1400, 0.2u) at Superbook
- AL: Julio Rodriguez (+1000, 0.15u) at Superbook
- AL: Wander Franco (+4000, 0.1u) at Superbook
- AL: Adley Rutschman: (+5000, 0.05u) at Superbook
- AL: Corey Seager (+5000, 0.05u) at bet365
