Prior to the season, it seemed like we had a very clear three-horse race for the AL Rookie of the Year Award.
Texas Rangers outfielder Evan Carter earned pole position with an excellent first 23 games at the MLB level in 2023 and sustained production in the playoffs to help the Rangers win the World Series. His teammate, Wyatt Langford, wasn't far behind, playing his way onto the Rangers' Opening Day roster with his 70-grade power and 60-grade hit tool lighting up spring training to the tune of a .365/.423/.714 slash line. Then, there was the game's top prospect in Baltimore Orioles shortstop Jackson Holliday, whose anticipated debut seemed to be imminent.
However, as we see year after year, baseball is an unpredictable sport. The league has adjusted to Carter in his first full big-league season, Langford has struggled out of the gates and Holliday was in over his head at 20 years old. Only one of these guys is even active at this point (Carter) after an injury sidelined Langford and a 2-for-34 start forced the Orioles to reassign Holliday to Triple-A — that's left the AL Rookie of the Year Award market in flux.
Colton Cowser of the Orioles has emerged as the lone player with any sort of chance at winning the award (betting favorite at +125), according to oddsmakers, but even he has slowed down recently after a fast start.
With that, I think it's time we look at some AL Rookie of the Year long shots who may emerge as contenders as the season wears on.
Player stats and AL Rookie of the Year odds (via FanDuel) as of Wednesday, May 7.
AL Rookie of the Year Odds, Picks
1B Kyle Manzardo (+1300)
Cleveland Guardians
Called up to make his MLB debut on Monday, Manzardo seems like a player whose odds to win this award will quickly plummet. He's got all the makings of a surefire favorite for this award after slugging nine homers in 29 games for the Columbus Clippers, posting a steady .303/.375/.642 slash line.
The Guardians have been bereft of power hitters over the last few seasons and should at least give Manzardo an entire month of at-bats while Steven Kwan nurses a hamstring injury that should keep him out four weeks at the minimum. The worry here is that when Kwan returns, Manzardo may be squeezed out of a regular spot in the lineup, but given his carrying tool is his bat — and he's up to DH for Cleveland every day — he's as good a bet as anybody in this market.
Manzardo's inability to take walks could wind up killing a lot of his aura, but the fact remains that this guy has always hit and as a lefty, he's at worst going to be installed in a strong-side platoon for Cleveland as he settles in against big-league pitching. And, while he'll need to prove his worth at this level over the next few weeks in order to stay up, his competition is Will Brennan, who is slashing just .245/.287/.415.
A job for the remainder of the year should be attainable for Manzardo.
OF Joey Loperfido (+2500)
Houston Astros
I don't know about you, but I get excited when I see a prospect receive a real number when they get called up.
The Astros bestowed No. 10 upon their fifth-best offensive prospect upon his promotion a week ago, and he's looked the part of a Major Leaguer in his first five games with four hits in 15 at-bats. The sample is comically small, sure, but Loperfido exhibited strong bat-to-ball skills throughout his Minor-League career and has nothing left to prove there at 24 years of age.
The Astros are in a bit of a crunch offensively, and Loperfido has an excellent chance to stay up given he can fill glaring holes at first base and the outfield. While he's yet to don a first baseman's glove this season, we've all seen enough of Jon Singleton to know he's not the answer.
I expect Loperfido to continue hitting his way into regular playing time, and there is no reason to believe he'd be optioned unless we see some sort of cataclysmic, Holliday-like story unfold. With a few more weeks in the league, we'll see him around +1700 or shorter.
SS Orelvis Martinez (+15000)
Toronto Blue Jays
It's somewhat stunning to see a player this good, this close to the Majors, down in this range. Martinez's bat is undeniable with a spicy .296/.367/.574 slash line down in Triple-A — best of all, the highly touted prospect has managed to keep hitting home runs while lowering his strikeout rate significantly from 26.8% in 55 Triple-A games last season to 22.7%.
There's no question about the bat, but the Blue Jays have shuffled their feet on a callup due to Martinez's defensive issues. This isn't an uncommon occurrence, but at a certain point Toronto will have no choice.
Cavan Biggio's slight rebound in 2023 seems to be a distant memory, and the Blue Jays are currently cycling through contact-oriented hitters — such as Isaiah Kiner-Falefa and Ernie Clement — at third base. Those two are a clear cut above defensively, but Martinez leaves all three of these names in the dust with his bat.
The Blue Jays need Martinez's bat in the lineup if they want to push for a return to the playoffs, and it's not as if anyone they have at the big-league level is hitting well enough to block him. This team is in dire need of a spark, especially with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette struggling, which is why I think this promotion should be coming any week now.
When Martinez eventually debuts, there isn't much in his way of jetting up the board. Nobody has been able to take this market by the horns, and for all the good Cowser has done to start the season, he's hitting just .125 over his last 11 games.
This market is ripe for a long-shot bet, and Martinez is the man I'm targeting.
Final Thoughts
There are obviously some omissions on this list, and they were intentional.
Wilyer Abreu (+550) is coming off an excellent two-week stretch, but I'm incredibly skeptical after a pedestrian season in Triple-A last year. Junior Caminero (+1300) is an excellent prospect, but Tampa Bay has a huge surplus of infielders and may not need him for many games this season.
There are more fun, young Orioles in the mix, but Heston Kjerstad (+6000) can't get everyday at-bats, so what makes you think Coby Mayo (+3500) will?
Luis Gil (+5000) is a name that may catch people's eye, but nobody seems to be aware that the Yankees right-hander is likely capped at 100 innings this year after undergoing Tommy John surgery last year.
There are a ton of reasons not to trust many of the names on this list, and while the above three names are flawed in their own ways, they should be given plenty of playing time and each carries an incredible bat on their shoulders.
The AL Rookie of the Year award is anyone's game, which means there should be an opportunity here for a big hit in the futures market.
