The Thursday MLB slate is typically light, but this matchup between AL West foes — the Oakland Athletics and Los Angeles Angels piques my interest.
It's one of the worst pitching mactchups you'll find in a major league game for one. Another interesting aspect is Oakland just took two of three games from the AL West leading Astros, while the Angels put a boulder sized dent in the Mariners division winning chances with a sweep in Seattle.
On the surface, a pair of teams expected to off-load veterans next week wouldn't provide much intrigue, but they're both playing spoiler right now. Count me in. Let's get a same game parlay (SGP) rolling for Angels vs. Athletics tonight.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Angels vs Athletics Parlay Picks: SGP Props & Odds (July 25)
- Athletics ML (-105)
- Miguel Andújar Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105)
- Ross Stripling Under 2.5 Strikeouts (+130)
Parlay Odds: +625 (DraftKings)
Athletics ML (-105)
Angels vs. Athletics, 9:38 p.m. ET
In Rosenberg’s 14 games in AAA this year, he pitched to a 3.74 ERA in 14 starts with a less encouraging 1.23 WHIP. The A’s should pounce on Rosenberg’s mediocre fastball that he throws 51% of the time, but averages just 89 mph. That looks like a beach ball to major league hitters, especially if the pitch lacks movement. If it’s a straight four-seamer, Rosenberg has to pray for soft contact since major league hitters seldom swing through 89 mph four-seamers.
Plus, the Athletics were the best-hitting team in baseball in July, posting a 152 wRC+. That lofty number leads the second-place Tigers by 25 points of wRC+. Both Lawrence Butler and Brent Rooker should contend for AL Player of the Month. Butler has eight homers and a 294 wRC+, while Rooker, who might be shipped elsewhere next week also has eight homers with a 280 wRC+.
I don’t have much faith in Ross Stripling, but he’s the better pitcher in this matchup, which speaks to Rosenberg more than anything. At least Stripling has pitched over 800 major league innings in eight major league seasons.
The silver lining? Stripling is fresh off the injured list, and his FIP indicates he was incredibly unlucky in 55 innings this year. He enters play with an elevated 5.82 ERA with a FIP of 3.98 — nearly two whole runs lower than his ERA.
So, is Stripling a trustworthy starter? Nope. However, Stripling is owed some positive regression for his dreadful first two months of the year. Perhaps it comes against one of the worst offenses in MLB. The Angels have been the exact opposite of Oakland on the offensive side. They rank second to last in wRC+ in July. That's not ideal for the Halos.
Miguel Andújar Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Angels vs. Athletics, 9:38 p.m. ET
Miguel Andujar’s resurgence project is in full swing in Oakland. They took a flier on the 2018 AL rookie of the year runner up, and he's provided more value than anyone would've imagined, posting a 112 wRC+.
I don’t fully buy into Andujar being a good hitter — or even an above-league-average bat much longer. The story of his inconsistent career has been incredibly high highs, and such low lows that saw him spend several years in AAA.
So far, it’s been all positive for Andujar in the green & gold, and I’m hoping his hot hitting continues on Thursday.
The 29-year-old righty is quite the enigma — he doesn’t hit the ball hard — never walks — but his elite bat-to-ball skills (14.9% K rate) often lead to him putting the ball in play. I think that plays well versus a soft-tossing southpaw in Rosenberg, who doesn’t have the pure stuff to pull Andujar too far out of the strike zone.
Plus, Andujar is hitting .502 versus southpaws this year in 29 ABs. It's a small sample, but it's a positive-splits matchup for him.
Ross Stripling Under 2.5 Strikeouts (+130)
Angels vs. Athletics, 9:38 p.m. ET
The final leg of this SGP spruces up the odds a bit. That last little jolt needed to make the parlay worthwhile, and it's Stripling under 2.5 strikeouts. Seeing a starting pitcher with a pregame total of 2.5 Ks is pretty unforeseen, but it's not unfair.
Stripling pitched to a 5.66 K/9 before suffering that elbow injury in May. He struck out two or fewer batters in four of his final five starts before getting injured.
It's not like his innings were limited, either — he pitched 5 or more innings in three of those starts. He just isn't a strikeout pitcher, and Oakland could look to keep his pitch count in check since he hasn't pitched in over two months.
I'm a huge fan of plus money on a prop that seems to have a decent chance of cashing based on Stripling's recent track record. Let's hope he keeps the ball on the ground and doesn't miss many bats — which doesn't happen much anyways.
