Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago Cubs Odds
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -128 | 9.5 -110o / -110u | +150 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +106 | 9.5 -110o / -110u | -178 |
The best tradition in baseball — day games at Wrigley Field. The Chicago Cubs will head to the friendly confines to host the Los Angeles Angels on Friday afternoon. The Cubs enter play in sole possession of last place in the NL Central at 40-48, while the Angels firmly hold fourth place in the AL West at 36-50.
Let's make an Angels vs Cubs prediction for Friday.
Los Angeles Angels
The Griffin Canning being a potential ace dream never panned out for the Angels. He’s probably close to losing his rotation spot with a few more bad starts instead of being a piece of the future in Anaheim. Canning enters this start with a 4.71 ERA and 5.25 FIP, while he’s striking batters out at a career-worst 6.05 K/9 clip and walks over 3.07 per nine.
Arguably the most concerning part about Canning’s profile is his deteriorating stuff. Last year, Canning posted a 96 Stuff+, and now it’s sitting at a measly 86. In his current form, he just isn’t a very good pitcher.
I also don’t have a ton of faith in the Angels lineup sans Mike Trout. They rank 20th in wRC+ since June 1, but this lineup just isn’t very talented. The top hitter according to wRC+ is Logan O’Hoppe at 175, then Willie Calhoun (119), followed by Nolan Schanuel (109), Zach Neto (106) and Luis Rengifo (105.)
Two of those four hitters might not be in the lineup in the series opener at Wrigley, as Calhoun typically sits against southpaws and Rengifo is dealing with a wrist injury that kept him out of Thursday’s action.
Rengifo is turning into the American League replica of Luis Arraez in terms of putting the ball in play for a high average with limited strikeouts. The lineup clearly missed Rengifo, as the Athletics shut them out in dominant fashion to secure the sweep.
Chicago Cubs
Respect Justin Steele! He got going a little late after suffering an injury in his first start of the year on March 28 and didn’t see game action for about six weeks. Now, Steele is back to the form that made him an All-Star a season ago.
Over his past seven starts, Steele has pitched to a 1.80 ERA in 45 innings with just 35 hits and a solid 47 strikeouts. However, Steele hasn’t recorded a single win in any of his 12 starts. Yes, Steele owns a ERA around the low threes and doesn’t have a single victory. Why don’t the Cubs show their ace respect and help him get in the win column? That might change Friday.
Steele is terrific at limiting walks, ranking in the 84th percentile in walk rate, and generates a lot of chases, ranking in the 72nd percentile in chase rate. Steele won’t beat himself, so the Angels' bats need to show up or it’ll be another lousy night for them.
The Cubs' offense is a totally different story. They own a 96 wRC+, which ranks 18th in MLB since June 5. The most consistent hitter in the Cubs' lineup is Michael Busch, who went from failed prospect with the Dodgers to the Cubs' best hitter, posting a 152 wRC+. Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ (137 wRC+) have also finally started hitting. Happ just came off a huge game in the win over the Phillies, collecting four hits with a pair of homers.
If Happ continues hitting, that changes the Cubs' lineup entirely. Another huge X-factor is Cody Bellinger, who carried the Cubs' offense throughout most of last year with an unexpected power surge that got him back in the good graces of Major League Baseball. The power once again has gone dormant, but Bellinger is hitting .339 with a .413 OBP in his past 15 games.
The one thing the Cubs excel at is using their patience to draw walks. Their 9.3 BB% since June 5 ranks sixth in baseball, and four hitters boast walk rates above 10%. On the other side of the token, the Cubs strike out way too much. It’s hard for a lineup to get on track if they punch out over 25% of the time.
Angels vs. Cubs
Betting Pick & Prediction
I can’t see the Angels staying competitive in this one. Canning is as fade-worthy of a pitcher as you’ll find in the sport, while Steele is a pitcher worth backing moving forward. Although the Cubs haven’t secured a win for Steele this year, I don’t think it’s a real trend. It’s just an unfortunate coincidence.
I’ll grab the Cubs run line at -1.5, as Steele should carve through this Angels lineup. If the bats stay awake, the Cubs could be on their way to a blowout win.
Pick: Cubs -1.5 (-110)
