Angels vs. Rays Odds
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+215 | 7.5 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -106 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-260 | 7.5 -110 / -110 | -1.5 -113 |
Zach Eflin will take the mound Thursday for the Tampa Bay Rays. Eflin has been consistent all season and gets to face a Los Angeles Angels lineup without Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, Luis Rengifo, Mike Moustakas, Mickey Moniak, Taylor Ward or even Kyren Paris. The Angels probably have the worst lineup in baseball right now.
Griffin Canning, who has some potential, will start for the Angels. The 27-year-old righty has put together a serviceable season and has reasonable enough peripherals to build a rotation around.
That said, Tampa Bay has several hitters who can get on base against Canning and the Angels’ horrid relief staff. With that being the case, bet the Rays to go over their team total.
Los Angeles Angels
Canning owns a 4.42 ERA against a 3.97 xERA. His Barrel Rate is 9.5%, his Hard-Hit Rate is 44.4% and his Average Exit Velocity is 91 mph. That said, he's only walking 6.3% of batters and is striking out 26% of them. In September, he has a 4.67 ERA over 17 1/3 innings, though it's important to note those starts were against some of the worst offenses in baseball — the Oakland A’s, Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers. The Rays should be more than fine in this spot.
Los Angeles has struggled at the dish without its mainstays. The Angels have a 73 wRC+ off of right-handers with a 7.6% walk rate and a 28% strikeout rate in September. They only have three bats with a xwOBA over .320 this month off of righties and that won't get the job done against Eflin.
The Angels' bullpen has taken its lumps since August. They have a 5.40 xFIP this month, so if the Rays can get to Canning early, it could be a long game.
Tampa Bay Rays
Eflin has always been a solid back-of-the-rotation arm, but the Rays have turned him into a stud with a 3.44 ERA against a 3.03 xERA. His Barrel Rate is 8.9%, his Hard-Hit Rate is 35% and his Average Exit Velocity is 87.3 mph. He's striking out 26% of batters and walking just 3.5%. Additionally, he carries a ground-ball rate over 50% and has a 3.71 ERA over 17 innings this month.
The Rays can hit the ball hard. On the season, they have an Average Exit Velocity of 89.5 mph. In September, they have a 96 wRC+ and a .699 OPS off of righties, but they also boast six sluggers with a xwOBA over .320, which should be enough against Canning and the Angels.
Brandon Lowe blasts @RaysBaseball into the lead. 💪
(MLB x @Chevrolet) pic.twitter.com/hdYCvPlRe1
— MLB (@MLB) September 15, 2023
The Rays have been exceptional in relief this month and shouldn't have any issues against a putrid Angels lineup.
Angels vs. Rays
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Rays should win this game, but the moneyline is a bit pricy. However, we can bet Tampa Bay to go over its team total of 4.5 (-110). The Rays have the necessary bats and if they're unable to score five runs off Canning, there's a good chance they'll be able to tack on a few more against the Los Angeles bullpen.
