Angels vs. Red Sox Odds
| Angels Odds | -124 |
| Red Sox Odds | +106 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 (-105 / -115) |
| Time | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
Could we finally see Mike Trout win a playoff game? I know it’s early, but the Angels have gotten off to a surprisingly hot start, sitting atop the AL West standings with a 15-9 record.
Los Angeles has the third-best record in the American League, and has won seven of its last 10 games.
Boston, on the other hand, has really struggled out of the gate. The Red Sox are just 9-14 to start the year, just a game ahead of Baltimore for last place in the AL East. Boston has lost seven of its last 10 games.
While Los Angeles has been the better team to this point, Boston has a nice advantage on Tuesday, as it returns home after a day off. The Angels will be playing their 12th straight game after dueling the White Sox on Monday.
Halos Starting Resurgent Thor
Los Angeles has turned into Asgard, as 2022 has been the return of Thor. After missing almost two entire seasons following Tommy John surgery, Noah Syndergaard (RHP) signed with the Angels this offseason. In his first season in the City of Angels, Syndergaard is 2-0 with a 2.12 ERA through three starts.
After averaging 98 miles per hour with his fastball, Syndergaard’s velocity is down around 94.5 this season. He has reached up to 96 on a couple occasions, but his velocity has clearly dropped a bit.
To combat this, he has been using his changeup a lot more, and he has yet to allow a hit on his slider or curveball.
So in case anybody forgot, Trout is still the best player in baseball. Trout is red hot and leads the league with a .526 wOBA and 255 wRC+. He is batting .368 over the last two weeks.
Next to Trout, right fielder Taylor Ward is having a surprise breakout season, batting .390 with a 1.329 OPS and five home runs to start the year.
Trout’s return has helped to lift the Angels' lineup that ranks second in wOBA and leads the league in wRC+ through the first month of the season. The Halos have eight players with a wRC+ over 100, and reigning MVP Shohei Ohtani isn’t even one of them.
Is Wacha Back to Old Self for Boston?
Veteran Michael Wacha (RHP) will oppose Thor in this battle, and his stats appear to tell a tale of a resurgence of his own.
After posting a 5.05 ERA last season with Tampa Bay, Wacha is 2-0 with a 1.77 ERA through his first four starts in Boston. He has allowed just four runs in 20 1/3 innings and has held opponents to a .143 batting average.
Wacha has dropped his cutter usage considerably, as it has been his worst pitch the last couple of years. Instead, he is throwing his fastball and changeup more, both of which have been terrific this year.
The question is, will his early success be sustainable?
For a team with this much talent in the lineup, the Red Sox offense has been abysmal to start the year. The unit currently ranks just 28th in wRC+ and 27th in wOBA. The Sox have hit just 13 home runs all season.
The lone bright spot at the plate has been shortstop Xander Bogaerts, who is batting .369 on the year. He has a .169 wRC+ and .409 wOBA. J.D. Martinez and Rafael Devers are the only other Sox players with a wRC+ over 100.
Angels-Red Sox Pick
The 30-year-old Wacha has gotten off to an excellent start in his first season in Boston. However, the expected numbers tell a slightly different story.
Despite his 1.77 ERA, his xERA sits up at 3.56 and his xFIP is 3.97. He ranks in the bottom 20% of the league in Average Exit Velocity Allowed. His walks have been an issue too, allowing a 3.98 BB/9.
Over the last three seasons, Wacha has a 5.11 ERA, and he could be due for some negative regression, especially against the red-hot Angels lineup.
Syndergaard looks like he is potentially returning to ace status, despite the dip in velocity. His ground ball rate is at a career high. He is throwing his changeup a lot more, and Boston ranks 29th in the league with a -7.4 run value against changeups this year.
Behind Syndergaard, Aaron Loup, Ryan Tepera and Raisel Iglesias all had Monday off, so the Angels' relievers should be able to match Boston's rest.
Wacha is due for negative regression, and I am buying that Thor has regained his powers. The Halos' offense is red hot, while Boston’s continues to slump.
I’ll back the Angels at -125 and would play them to -135.
Pick: Los Angeles Angels -125
