Angels vs Red Sox Odds
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +168 | 9 -112o / -108u | -102 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 9 -112o / -108u | -116 |
The Angels (6-6) head to Fenway Park on Friday to take on the Red Sox (7-5), who the Orioles just swept in a three-game series.
Healthy and inconsistent pitching performances have the Sox in an early-season tailspin after a strong 7-2 start.
How will the Sox rebound against a lower-tier team? Let's make an Angels vs. Red Sox pick after diving into the MLB odds for Friday, April 12.
Los Angeles Angels
Is the Reid Detmers breakout season here? It feels like Detmers has a month-long stretch every year where he's arguably the best pitcher in baseball and then plateaus. So far, Detmers is dominating the competition, owning a 1.64 ERA with an even better 1.12 FIP over 11 2/3 innings.
The only real concern in Detmers' underlying profile is walks, ranking in the 45th percentile in BB percentage. On the flip side, Detmers ranks in the 98th percentile in whiff percentage and 99th percentile in K percentage.
The lefty has generated swings and misses at terrific rates with his fastball and old-school 12-6 curveball combination.
At the plate, I'm very glad we're seeing how good Mike Trout is again. He's played just over 300 games in the past four seasons, which made people forget just how incredible he can be. Now healthy, Trout has a dazzling 234 wRC+ with a league-leading six home runs in 12 games.
All I ask for this year is a healthy season for Trout. Let him play 140-plus games and make a push for another MVP award. Please. It's better for the game, even if the Angels do the typical Angels thing and miss the playoffs.
We know Trout is an elite hitter. But is there any protection behind him? The short answer is no; there's a void left by Shohei Ohtani that the front office didn't fill.
The three players hitting behind Trout are Taylor Ward, Miguel Sano and Brandon Drury. In the year 2024, having Sano and Drury in the fifth and sixth holes isn't conducive to winning games.
Opposing pitchers will eventually start to pitch around Trout and live with Ward, Sano or the rest of the cast of misfits beating them.
Boston Red Sox
Opposing Detmers is another young strikeout artist in right-hander Tanner Houck. It's a real do-or-die season for Houck in terms of establishing himself as a starting pitcher.
He barely cracked the rotation after posting a 5.01 ERA last year, but Alex Cora putting Houck in the rotation looks brilliant now. The 27-year-old hasn't allowed a run in 12 innings of work and has racked up 17 punch-outs. He's been sensational so far with no signs of letting up.
Offensively, two of the Red Sox's big boppers have dealt with injuries — Trevor Story is done of the year, and Rafael Devers looks destined for a stint on the IL.
Tyler O'Neill has been Boston's best hitter through two weeks, posting a 263 wRC+ with six homers, tied with Trout for the league lead. I don't think most people put O'Neill and Trout in the same conversation, but the two have put up similar numbers so far.
When O'Neill has been healthy, he has typically hit the ball well. He's not winning American League MVP, but posting a 130-145 wRC+ feels possible.
Three of the Sox's better hitters — Jarren Duran, Triston Casas and Masataka Yoshida — hit worse against left-handed pitching than against right-handed pitching, which isn't ideal for this matchup.
The best plan of attack against Detmers is drawing long at-bats, leading to an early exit — even if you can't put a dent on the scoreboard. Casas is outstanding at drawing walks and making pitchers work, so he'll play an essential role in Game 1 of the Angels series.
Angels vs Red Sox
Betting Pick & Prediction
I want to continue backing Detmers until the wheels fall off the train. He's a really gifted pitcher, who's shown plenty of flashes. It just comes down to consistency and limiting the free passes, which are still an issue in 2024.
Plus, Detmers already faced the Red Sox in one of his two starts, tossing six innings of one-run ball with 12 strikeouts. He made the Sox look foolish for the majority of the game.
It's just a bad matchup for a team that doesn't have favorable splits against left-handed pitching.
However, I don't trust the Angels' bullpen. At all. I just want to back Detmers' portion of the game without the stress of Luis Garcia or Carlos Estevez blowing the game.
Also, Red Sox lost to the Orioles in extras yesterday, which could leave the bullpen thin. Kenley Jansen threw 19 pitches while looking unimpressive. Justin Slaten threw over 30 pitches. Isaiah Campbell allowed six runs on 28 pitches. That's three of the Sox's key bullpen cogs who might not pitch in the first game of this weekend set.
I'm going to roll with the Angels F5, but if you want to take the full-game ML, it's a solid pick as well.
Pick: Angels F5 ML +100
