Brandon Pfaadt has been more than reliable in the Arizona Diamondbacks' rotation. The former top prospect has encouraging peripherals as he limits walks and keeps runners off base.
His opponent will be the slumping Cleveland Guardians. The Guardians have been struggling offensively, especially against righties, so Pfaadt should have some positive regression coming in this matchup.
Ben Lively will get the start for Guardians, but I think the Diamondbacks hold value on the moneyline, which leads me right to my Diamondbacks vs Guardians prediction for Game 1 of their Wednesday doubleheader.
Diamondbacks vs Guardians Odds & Prediction (Game 1)
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-105 | 8 -115o / -105u | -1.5 +160 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-115 | 8 -115o / -115u | +1.5 -192 |
Diamondbacks vs Guardians Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) | Stat | RHP Ben Lively (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-6 | W-L | 10-6 |
| 2.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 3.97/3.31 | ERA /xERA | 3.42/3.64 |
| 3.54/3.74 | FIP / xFIP | 4.50/4.34 |
| 1.13 | WHIP | 1.15 |
| 16.8 | K-BB% | 12.4 |
| 43.5 | GB% | 40.4 |
| 107 | Stuff+ | 69 |
| 106 | Location+ | 103 |
Diamondbacks vs Guardians Preview
Diamondbacks Betting Preview: Pfaadt in Good Matchup
Pfaadt owns a 3.97 ERA and an xERA under 3.40. His walk rate is under 6% and he has an average strikeout rate. He has a tendency to allow hard contact, but Cleveland is slumping, so that shouldn't be an issue in this game. Pfaadt gets hitters to chase relatively often and can limit barrels.
The D'backs’ lineup is the antithesis of Cleveland's over the past month. Arizona has a 135 wRC+ with a 9.9% walk rate and a 16.7% strikeout rate over that timeframe. Losing Gabriel Moreno and Christian Walker to the Injured List doesn't help, but the D'backs have five active batters with an xwOBA above .400 off of righties since July 7.
The D'backs’ bullpen has a 3.72 xFIP with an 8.2% walk rate and a 23.6% strikeout rate. They have four active arms with an xFIP under 4.00, though Pfaadt shouldn't need many relievers behind him. The Cleveland lineup will put the ball in play and prevent Pfaadt from accruing too many pitches early.
Guardians Betting Preview: Offense is MIA
Ben Lively has thrown well of late. He's given up two earned runs or fewer in four straight starts. However, those lineups haven't been as hot as Arizona's.
It also doesn't help that Cleveland's offense is nowhere to be found at the moment.
Since July 7 against righties, the Guardians have the second-worst wRC+ in baseball, only beating out the Chicago White Sox, who are on pace for one of the worst records of all-time. Cleveland has only one batter with a xwOBA over .310 off of righties over the past month — José Ramírez.
Cleveland's bullpen is decent, but if the Guardians aren't scoring, the bullpen won't be a huge factor.
Diamondbacks vs Guardians Predictions
Back the Diamondbacks and their potent lineup. Arizona is hammering righties and can do the same against Lively. Bet the D'backs to win this game on the road and play them to -160.
Pick: Diamondbacks ML (Play to -140)
Moneyline
I'm betting the Diamondbacks moneyline in this game.
Run Line (Spread)
While I think Arizona will win, my Diamondbacks vs. Guardians prediction is on the moneyline. I'm going to pass on the run line.
Over/Under
I'm also passing on the over/under.
