The Arizona Diamondbacks continue their road swing through the Sunshine State after getting swept by Tampa Bay as the defending National League champions square off with the Miami Marlins at loanDepot Park.
The Marlins are back in South Florida after avoiding a sweep in New York against the Mets on Sunday as they begin a six-game homestand. With that being said, let's get to my Diamondbacks vs. Marlins prediction.
Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-210 | 8 -115 / -105 | -1.5 -120 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+175 | 8 -115 / -105 | +1.5 +160 |
Diamondbacks vs Marlins Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) | Stat | RHP Adam Oller (MIA) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-6 | W-L | NA |
| 2.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | NA |
| 3.98/3.39 | ERA /xERA | NA |
| 3.47/3.65 | FIP / xFIP | NA |
| 1.11 | WHIP | NA |
| 18.1% | K-BB% | NA |
| 41.8% | GB% | NA |
| 107 | Stuff+ | NA |
| 106 | Location+ | NA |
Kevin Rogers’s Diamondbacks vs Marlins Preview
Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview: Workhorse Pfaadt
The Diamondbacks were rolling after the All-Star break by winning 20 of 25 games, including series victories over Kansas City, Cleveland, and Philadelphia.
However, the wheels fell off the wagon this past weekend at Tropicana Field as Arizona dropped all three games at Tampa Bay, including a pair of walk-off losses.
The D-backs overcame a 6-0 deficit on Sunday with six late runs over the final three innings to tie the Rays at 6-6 and even took the lead in the 10th inning. But the Rays tied it in the bottom of the 10th and won it in 12 innings as the D-backs were swept in a three-game series for the first time since April at Atlanta.
Brandon Pfaadt has become the workhorse of this Arizona rotation this season by leading the pitching staff in innings pitched and WAR while posting a better K rate and lower BB% and BABIP than D-backs ace Zac Gallen.
The D-backs have won eight of Pfaadt's last nine starts since late June, as he recorded 11 strikeouts in his previous start against Colorado. Pfaadt tossed seven innings, although Arizona fell into a 4-1 hole. However, the D-backs rallied for four runs and the 5-4 victory.
From a strikeout prop perspective, Pfaadt has hit the Over in three of his past four road starts, while opposing pitchers are 5-2 to the Over on their K prop in the last seven starts at Miami.
Arizona has cashed the Over in six of its last eight road series openers in the first five innings while posting a 9-3 Over mark in its previous 12 road games in the first five innings.
Miami Marlins Betting Preview: Who Is Adam Oller?
The Marlins have been competitive since the All-Star break, despite a 13-15 record in the last 28 games. Miami was swept nine times in the first half of the season, but not one team has pulled out the broom on the Fish in nine series in the second half.
The time around the trade deadline felt like a car dealership announcing "Everything Must Go" for the Marlins, who dealt away too many players to list here.
Miami was a playoff team last season. This season, the Marlins dug themselves an early 0-9 hole that eventually stretched to 6-24 after Washington swept them at home in late April.
The Marlins edged the Mets on Sunday, 3-2, to snap a three-game slide, but more importantly, Miami has held its own against a brutal second-half schedule. Since the All-Star break, the Fish have faced the Orioles, Brewers, Braves, Padres, and Phillies, all teams that will likely be in the playoffs.
Adam Oller gets the call-up from Triple-A Jacksonville tonight as the former Oakland Athletics' right-hander posted a 2.88 ERA in 25 innings with the Jumbo Shrimp.
Oller signed a minor-league deal with the Marlins last month but owns a 3-9 career record, all coming with the A's in 2022 and 2023. The Texas native showed signs that he belonged late in the 2022 season, including eight strong innings against the Yankees in an extra-innings victory.
The Marlins took two of three meetings from the D-backs in Phoenix earlier this season, and all three games finished under the total. In the two wins, Miami limited Arizona to one run combined, while the only loss came by a 3-2 score.
Diamondbacks vs Marlins Prediction, Betting Analysis
Oller is the biggest wild card here, with his first Major League start since 2023. However, Pfaadt has been one of Arizona's best pitchers this season, and the D-backs should be motivated after a rough weekend at Tampa Bay.
Arizona is 5-1 to the Over in the last six games in the first five innings after getting blanked in the first five in the previous contest.
Look for runs early in this one against Oller and take the first five Over in this series opener.
Pick: F5 Over 4 (-115, bet365) | Play to 4.5 (+100)
Moneyline
The D-backs are laying a considerable number tonight, which wouldn't be recommended, considering Arizona just got swept. The Marlins are 2-6 in their last eight home games, but four losses came in extra innings.
Run Line (Spread)
Eleven of Miami's last 12 losses have come by two runs or more, including two extra-innings defeats by multiple runs. Seven of Arizona's last 12 victories have come by one run, so backing them at -1.5 wouldn't be the wisest move, so let's pass on the run line.
Over/Under
Arizona's offense hit a speed bump in Tampa Bay this past weekend in the first 5 innings by combining for three runs in three games, as two came in the first inning on Friday night. The D-backs are 6-2 to the Over in the first five innings in the last eight games and 5-1-2 to the Over in the entire game in this stretch.
The Marlins are riding a 10-1 Over stretch in their last 11 games, so we feel comfortable with runs being scored tonight.
